Nov JKM futures traded volumes and end-month open interest reach record highs

Traded volumes for JKM derivatives reached a record high in November, totalling 142,894 lots, surpassing the previous high reported in June 2025 at 128,655 lots, according to Intercontinental Exchange data.

The total traded volume equates to roughly 27.48 million mt of LNG, equivalent to 433 cargoes.

All volumes were cleared on ICE, with the JKM monthly futures contributing 130,579 lots and balmo futures 12,315 lots.

Notably, traded volumes for the JKM futures reached a record daily high on Nov. 14 at 15,183 lots for contracts spanning December 2025 to December 2027.

End-November open interest in JKM monthly and balmo futures also reached a record high at 200,368 lots, up 1.24% from October and 52.40% higher year over year. The previous record high was reported in October at 197,919 lots.

ICE accounted for 96.62% of open interest, comprising 187,195 lots in monthly futures and 6,393 lots in balmo futures. Meanwhile, CME made up the remaining 6,780 lots, all in monthly futures.

Meanwhile, activity in the JKM Average Price Options contract improved. Traded volumes surged to 4,760 lots, up from 655 lots in the previous month, and the end-of-month open interest increased by 18.26% to 11,205 lots.

Bearish outlook depresses prices, widens Q1 2026 backwardation

Persistently weak Northeast Asian demand continued to pressure the front of the curve, with the Platts-assessed JKM January Balmo contract falling 30.3% year over year to $10.720/MMBtu on Dec. 2, down from $15.39/MMBtu a year earlier.

A broadly bearish outlook for 2026 - driven by expectations of new LNG supply - has also deepened the backwardation across Q1 2026 JKM monthly contracts. The Balmo Jan/Feb spread widened to 41 cents/MMBtu as of Dec. 2, 2025, compared with just 1 cent/MMBtu on Dec. 2, 2024.

On the same day, the JKM Jan/Feb and Feb/Mar spreads were assessed at 64 cents/MMBtu and 51 cents/MMBtu, respectively, versus minus 15.5 cents/MMBtu and 28 cents/MMBtu in 2024.

Notably, elevated Atlantic freight rates in November further supported the widening spread between Asian and Northwest European spot LNG prices.

The JKM-NWE spread climbed to a multimonth high of $1.721/MMBtu on Nov. 21, compared with the previous recent peak of $2.532/MMBtu on Sept. 19, 2024.

Market participants noted that traders were attempting to preserve arbitrage opportunities into Asia despite higher Atlantic freight.

"Freight rates don't seem to be tapering off soon; portfolio players are still holding onto ships," a market source working in a Chinese company said.