ASIA LNG MOC: Dec JKM activity reaches record high ahead of peak winter demand

Activity in the Platts Market on Close assessment process for Asia's LNG market reached a record high during the December JKM pricing period (Oct. 16–Nov. 14), as participants adjusted positions ahead of peak winter demand.

A total of 750 market entries were reported, comprising 432 offers, 284 bids and 34 trades, for deliveries spanning the second half of November through January 2026 and involving 23 participating entities, showed MOC data.

This marked a 20% month-on-month increase and a 179.85% year-on-year rise, surpassing the previous record of 718 entries in the October pricing window.

As Northeast Asia entered the heating season, daily MOC activity averaged 35 entries, peaking at a record 50 on Nov. 11. Most activity centered on deliveries into Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China, though interest extended to Southeast Asia, including 10 bids for Thailand.

Among the 34 physical trades, totaling roughly 2.21 million mt of LNG, Shell emerged as the most active buyer with 13 cargoes, followed by Trafigura with eight and PetroChina with six. BP purchased three cargoes, while Glencore, Mercuria, RWE, and Vitol each bought one.

On the sell side, QatarEnergy Trading led with 17 cargoes, followed by PetroChina with six. Mercuria and RWE each sold two, while Beijing Gas, BP, EnBW, Freepoint Commodities, Gunvor, Marubeni, and SEFE each sold one cargo, according to MOC data.

Pricing showed a strong preference for floating indices. 11 trades were linked to the JKM balance-month next-day (balmo) contract, averaging an 8.7 cents/MMBtu discount for December and early-January deliveries. Nine others were tied to the JKM January contract, averaging an 8.1 cents/MMBtu discount. The remaining 14 December-delivery trades were done at fixed prices, averaging $11.014/MMBtu, based on the MOC data.

Derivatives MOC activity sees new record

LNG derivatives activity through the MOC process also reached new highs, with 4,690 entries from 24 participants, comprising 2,302 bids, 1,686 offers, and 702 trades, surpassing the previous record of 4,327 during the November pricing period.

This represented an 8.39% month-on-month increase and a 148.81% year-on-year rise.

Activity in spreads was particularly robust, with 20 trades in the balance-month–January 2026 spread and three trades in the January–February 2026 spread, signaling active curve positioning into early 2026.

JKM futures traded volume recorded on the Intercontinental Exchange reached 144,480 lots, equivalent to around 13.31 million mt or 438 cargoes, over Oct. 16–Nov. 14, with the derivatives MOC process accounting for 12.22% of that volume.

Thin demand pressures cash differentials

A milder early-winter outlook across Northeast Asia tempered near-term procurement needs, keeping JKM cash differentials in consistent discount territory amid ample offers in the bilateral market, said market participants

The Balmo cash differential averaged a 6.2 cents/MMBtu discount through the December pricing period.

The abundance of offers was also evident in the cargo MOC, where offers often outnumbered bids.

Weak winter demand was further reflected in the backwardated intermonth structure between H2 December and H1 January - a reversal from the typical winter contango when January usually commands a seasonal premium.

Notably, the intermonth spread saw rapid shifts. The spread flipped from a 3-cent/MMBtu backwardation the prior day to a 6.5-cent/MMBtu contango on Nov. 6, before swinging back into a 1.2-cent/MMBtu backwardation three days later.

Several market sources attributed these shifts to short covering by trading houses that had sold into strip tenders earlier in the year, prompting intermittent buying interest that temporarily reshaped the curve.

The Platts-assessed December JKM averaged $11.016/MMBtu, up 1.01% month on month but down 18.06% year over year, reflecting a market constrained more by muted end-user demand than by supply-side pressures amid incremental supplies from North American LNG liquefaction projects.