Sep JKM futures traded volumes up 7% MOM; Balmo futures reach record high

Traded volumes for Platts JKM derivatives totaled 93,726 lots in September, rising 6.61% month over month but falling 1.99% year over year, according to Intercontinental Exchange data on Sept. 30. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

The JKM balance-of-month next-day futures traded volumes hit a record high of 9,825 lots in September, surpassing the previous high of 8,928 lots traded in July, ICE data showed.

The total traded volume equates to roughly 18 million mt of LNG, equivalent to 284 cargoes. All volumes were cleared on ICE, with the JKM monthly futures contributing 83,901 lots and balmo futures 9,825 lots.

End-September open interest in JKM monthly and balmo futures stood at 182,845 lots, down 0.32% from August but up 50.76% year over year. This was the second-highest level on record, behind the August 2025 peak of 171,649 lots.

ICE accounted for 96.29% of open interest -- comprising 171,367 lots in monthly futures and 4,698 lots in balmo futures -- while CME made up the remaining 6,780 lots, all in monthly futures.

Meanwhile, activity in the JKM Average Price Options contract slowed. Traded volumes fell to 1,150 lots, down from 3,605 lots in August, while end-month open interest slipped 7.69% to 10,800 lots, exchange data showed.

Source: ICE, CME, TOCOM, EEX

Weak demand outlook caps Asian spot LNG prices

Despite firm derivatives activity, physical market sentiment remained bearish, according to multiple spot traders on Oct. 3. Demand for winter cargoes across Northeast Asia stayed subdued, with healthy inventories and ample supply weighing on spot LNG prices.

Asian spot LNG prices remained at a 16-month low for the second straight session on Oct. 2, with the Platts JKM, the benchmark price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, for November assessed at $10.494/MMBtu Oct. 2, Platts data showed.

The contango spread between the JKM November balmo and December futures widened to 36 cents/MMBtu by Oct. 2 from 26 cents/MMBtu on Sept. 16, Platts data showed. This spread remains narrower than in the same period of 2024 and 2023 -- at 80 cents/MMBtu and 70 cents/MMBtu respectively -- signalling a softer outlook for winter 2025.

"Despite falling spot prices, demand remains muted," a Singapore-based trader said Oct. 3, adding that Japanese and South Korean importers have largely stayed on the sidelines for November and December deliveries amid comfortable inventories, while China's reduced reliance on LNG for power generation -- supported by cheaper alternative fuels -- has further dampened buying interest.

Meanwhile, the East-West arbitrage for US-sourced cargoes remained effectively shut to Asia. The Platts-assessed East-West arbitrage for US-sourced cargoes transiting via the Cape of Good Hope was marked at minus 43.2 cents/MMBtu Oct. 2, Platts data showed.

The arbitrage margin to Asia was the highest in early September with minus 23.1 cents/MMBtu recorded on Sept. 3. "The arbitrage was briefly open earlier this month [September] but closed shortly after," a trader at a Japanese firm said.