Indian LNG importers face tender cancellations amid price swings

Indian companies are finding it increasingly difficult to secure urgently needed spot LNG cargoes as volatile intraday prices and repeated tender cancellations showed weaknesses in traditional procurement methods, threatening supply to critical sectors, including fertilizer production, according to multiple traders and importers.

Since conflict in the Middle East escalated in late February, Indian companies have fully awarded only four out of 15 LNG tenders for spot cargoes delivering over the next two months [See: Table 1], according to Platts tender data. Six March buy tenders were not awarded, one location swap was cancelled and another was only partially awarded.

The procurement challenges stem from a fundamental mismatch between tender structure and market conditions. Sellers are required to submit fixed flat price offers that remain valid for one to four hours, even as LNG prices move sharply within the day, exposing sellers to price risk that traders said is increasingly difficult to manage.

If prices fall, buyers seek to renegotiate lower, while rising prices cannot be reflected because offers are binding, a Europe-based trader said. As a result, sellers either step back or build in a risk premium to cover potential value at risk between bid submission and award.

Prompt purchases add strain

The situation has been compounded by India's need for prompt deliveries. Even as late as March 16, Indian companies were seeking cargoes for second-half March delivery and now they are seeking cargoes for H1 April, while Platts is assessing the West India Marker benchmark price for May.

On March 23, Platts assessed H1 April at $22.892/MMBtu with JKM H2 April assessed at $22.842/MMBtu, indicating a premium of 5 cents/MMBtu to cargoes delivered to JKM for H2 April. Platts assessed WIM for May at $22.835/MMBtu on March 23.

Typically, for cargo delivered to Northeast Asia, alternative load ports and alternative ships are nominated 30 days prior to the initial delivery window.

"When Indian companies ask for a prompt cargo, it can be made available by redirecting supply from another end user in Northeast Asia or Europe. Then that end user or counterpart supplier needs to be backfilled, which has a cost," a Singapore-based trader said. "The shorter the time to do this, the higher the premium charged to the current market."

The trader pointed out how Bangladesh has already purchased five cargoes for April delivery, with a tender floated for two more cargoes for end-April delivery.

Furthermore, the number of cargoes that can realistically be delivered on a prompt basis dwindles with each passing day, according to a second Singapore-based trader.

Cancellations and rescheduling

Four LNG traders said that numerous cancellations have dented confidence in the Indian cargo tendering process in its current form.

A Middle East source said that every time a tender is rescheduled after cancellation, deal economics would be done again, such as slippage in price, Value at Risk, as is the case before any offer is made.

The cancellation and reissuance of tenders also reduces the time between the tender closure and the buyer's delivery window. It has an impact on the price because the buyer is seeking even more prompt than earlier, the first Singapore-based trader said.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are crucial sources of Indian LNG imports, with India importing more than 60% of its cargoes from the two countries. These imports are no longer possible with the current disruption at the Strait of Hormuz.

In March 2025, 20 LNG cargoes loaded from Qatar and the UAE were delivered to India, according to data from S&P Global Energy CERA.

India has curbed demand for import of LNG cargoes by redirecting domestic gas and RLNG to priority sectors via an order on March 9. However, Indian importers and traders who trade cargoes to India believe securing LNG supply is crucial to maintain supply to the fertilizer sector and to industries.

"Food security is essential, and this could lead to a shortage in urea because India imports urea from the Middle East and produces it using LNG from the Middle East," an Indian importer said. "Sourcing for the urea production should be important."

"Industries are not ready to backstop purchases at higher prices and are shutting down temporarily, which creates uncertainty on how much supply is needed," an Indian end user said.

GAIL, IOCL and GSPC did not respond to queries for a comment until the time of publishing.