ASIA LNG MOC: February derivatives LNG trading reaches record high amid weak fundamentals

Physical trading activity in the Asian Platts Market on Close assessment process slowed for February amid ample inventories and muted Northeast Asian demand, an analysis of data from Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, showed.

The total number of bids, offers, and trades reported during the physical MOC reached 512 over the February pricing period, from Jan. 16 to Feb. 15, down 23.4% month over month, but tripling year over year.

Ten entities reported 32 trades for February and early-March deliveries into the Japan-Korea-Taiwan-China region, equivalent to around 2.08 million metric tons of LNG.

Eighteen trades were priced against the JKM index, with 12 trades priced against the JKM March contract and six trades priced against the JKM balance-month next-day contract.

Cash differentials for the trades averaged a 0.9-cent/MMBtu discount to the JKM March contract and a 4-cent/MMBtu discount to the JKM balance-month next-day contract.

A total of 231 bids and 249 offers were reported, with nearly half of the bids indicating China as the discharge port, while most of the offers listed Malaysia or Australia as the load ports.

Notably, PetroChina reported ten bids for mid-February delivery into India, the data showed.

Nearly 68.4% of LNG bids, offers and trades in the latest assessment cycle were linked to the Platts JKM benchmark, while 30.47% were on a fixed-price basis and 1.17% against the Dutch TTF index.

Derivatives MOC trading sees new record

The APAC LNG Derivatives MOC reported a record high of 755 trades, up 50.3% month over month and more than eighteenfold year over year.

The number of trades was last higher during the December 2025 pricing period, at 697 trades.

The derivatives MOC reported a total of 2,669 entries from 23 participants, comprising 940 bids, 940 offers and 755 trades.

Activity in spreads was particularly robust, with 238 entries for the balance-month-March 2026 spread and 129 entries for the February-March 2026 spread.

On the Intercontinental Exchange, JKM monthly futures recorded 117,253 lots and balance-month contracts 13,003 lots, bringing the total traded volume to 130,256 lots, according to exchange data. This is equivalent to about 25.05 million mt of LNG, or about 395 cargoes.

Price shifts reshape arbitrage and cargo movements

JKM prices remained steady in the mid- to high-$9s/MMBtu range through the first half of the pricing period, as subdued buying interest from Northeast Asian importers and ample supply offers limited any upward movement.

In the latter half of the period, however, prices swung between low-$9s/MMBtu to low-$10s/MMBtu amid escalating geopolitical tensions and growing concerns that colder-than-normal winter expectations in Europe could divert cargoes away from Asia.

For February deliveries, the Platts JKM averaged $9.61/MMBtu, with the assessment reaching a high of $10.132/MMBtu on Jan. 13.

Stronger bullish signals in Western markets also contributed to a sharp narrowing in inter-basin spreads. The March JKM/NWE derivative spread flipped into negative territory, reversing from a 63.4 cent/MMBtu premium at the start of the pricing period to minus 12.2 cents/MMBtu by Jan. 15, the lowest since Feb. 12, 2025.

Several market participants were caught off guard, with one Singapore-based financial trader noting that outright and spread contracts were trading "all over the place" throughout the day Jan. 16.

One Europe-based LNG broker also attributed the significant rise in derivatives activity to the fast-shifting price spreads and the overall increase in prices.

The narrowing inter-basin price spread also shifted cargo flows from the Middle East and West Africa, with market participants noting that several ships were now pointing toward the Atlantic instead of the Pacific.

Based on Two‑Stroke freight route costs and spot prices from Jan. 16, the arbitrage margin for moving a Middle East‑sourced cargo into Japan/South Korea rather than Northwest Europe via the Suez Canal stood at minus 39.6 cents/MMBtu, while the margin for a West Africa‑sourced cargo was deeper at minus $1.149/MMBtu.