Vietnam's cement exports to Taiwan likely to fall as antidumping duties dissuade buyers

Vietnam is expected to see a sharp decline in cement and clinker exports to Taiwan, as traders anticipate a shift in trade flows following the recent imposition of antidumping duties.

Taiwan imposed antidumping duties of up to 23.2% on Vietnamese Portland cement and clinker, effective July 28 for five years. The decision, published in Taiwan's official gazette on July 22, followed a year-long investigation that found Vietnamese exporters were selling at below market prices and damaging domestic producers.

Long Son Cement faces a 13.59% duty, Thang Long Cement 19.25%, and others, such as Vissai Ninh Binh and Xuan Thanh Cement 14.82%. Exporters not named face the top rate of 23.2%, according to the gazette.

The added cost makes Vietnamese supplies less competitive, with buyers eyeing alternatives such as Indonesia.

"It will make Vietnam clinker less attractive. Buyers may turn to Indonesia instead," said a Singapore-based trader.

Another Asian trader concurred: "I think Taiwan will block further imports from Vietnam, and buyers will have to find alternative supplies."

Duties, which could add $6–$10/mt to Vietnam's CFR prices to Taiwan, are pushing Vietnamese suppliers out of the market. "For now, Indonesia is more viable," another regional trader said. "Buyers are doing the math, and Vietnamese offers just don't make sense anymore after the duties."

FOB Vietnam clinker prices were last heard at $32.50–$32.75/mt for mid-August loading, pressured by weakening demand and firmer freight.

"With demand down during monsoon in Bangladesh, Vietnam may have to lower FOB prices further to stay competitive," a regional trader said.

FOB values have declined from $34–$35/mt in recent weeks and may fall further if exports remain sluggish, said sources.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed CEMDEX Turkey at $55/mt and cement clinker FOB Turkey at $48/mt on July 31, both unchanged from the previous week.