Global cement demand to remain stable in 2026 as surplus emerges: association

Global cement overall demand is likely to remain broadly stable in 2026, while capacity is anticipated to be in surplus, Wei Rushan, President of the World Cement Association, said in an industry outlook released on Jan. 13.

Rushan projects a moderate demand recovery in Europe from low levels, while the US market is expected to maintain stability. Latin America is predicted to see steady growth, with stronger expansion anticipated across the Middle East, Africa, and South-West Asia.

Rushan said that the global cement industry is undergoing rapid transformation, with significant changes in market structure and the rankings of leading enterprises. As multinational companies withdraw from Africa and Southeast Asia, regional players and Chinese firms are expanding their presence. "Currently, eight of the world's top ten cement producers are based in Asia, reflecting the evolving reality of the industry's shifting center," Rushan said.

Global cement volumes declined by an estimated 1.5% in 2025 but increased by 3.3% excluding China, Rushan added, citing data from the cement industry consultancy On Field Investment Research.

Cement production in China, the world's largest producer, reached approximately 1.69 billion metric tonnes in 2025, marking a year-over-year decline of around 7.4%, while price trends varied globally, with increases in Europe and declines in East Asia.

"Prices generally rose across Europe, with most countries in Eastern and Northern Europe recording increases of between 5% and 12%," Rushan said. "Prices in East Asia declined by around 4%, while Southeast Asia saw an increase of approximately 5%. The Middle East and North Africa experienced an increase of about 5%, while Latin America recorded a slight decline of around 1%."

The introduction of new tariffs did not result in major changes to seaborne cement and clinker trading routes or supply sourcing in 2025. "Global import and export flows totaled around 230 million tonnes, including an estimated 150-170 million tonnes of seaborne cement and clinker trade. Overall, tariffs did not significantly reshuffle global trade patterns."

Instead, he added, changes in trade flows were driven primarily by geopolitical risks and shifts in domestic supply and demand dynamics.

Rushan highlighted diverging policies and momentum related to climate change and carbon regulation. "In Europe, commitments to deploy carbon capture and storage remain firm. By contrast, in the US, momentum behind CCS has weakened due to the current administration reducing public subsidies that are key to financing CCS projects," he said.

The outlook also addresses regulatory shifts, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which will require cement exporters and importers in emerging markets to decarbonize their supply chains to maintain long-term access to developed markets. "Additionally, the cement industry was included in the scope of China's carbon market in 2025 and will start participating in compliance trading from 2026 onwards," Rushan added.