COP30: Support for fossil fuel transition roadmap grows despite 'red line' resistance

More than 80 countries have endorsed a road map to phase out fossil fuels at the UN Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil, even as the COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago acknowledged that many countries were viewing this issue as a "red line" in negotiations.

The growing coalition represents significant momentum for operationalizing commitments made at COP28 in Dubai two years ago, where countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. However, the initiative faces resistance, with many key oil and gas producers expectedly refusing to join this alliance.

On Nov. 19, Brazil's environment and climate change minister, Marina Silva, acknowledged the roadmap allows countries to "define their trajectories in the best possible way" for transitioning away from fossil fuel dependence.

"It is a fruitful dialogue. No one has a ready-made answer, and no one seeks to impose anything on anyone, but I am certain we still have a long way to go before we reach consensus," she said at a press conference.

The diplomatic maneuvering reflects the complex dynamics at COP30, where Brazil -- a major oil producer -- is simultaneously championing climate action while managing domestic energy interests.

The roadmap discussions are occurring as part of the COP30 "action agenda", which refers to parallel discussions alongside formal negotiations at the global climate summit, which is taking place Nov. 10-21.

Fossil fuels reliance

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defended the initiative, arguing that oil and mining companies "must pay part of this" climate transition cost.

"We must show society that we are serious - without imposing anything on anyone, without setting deadlines," Lula said at a press conference.

"If fossil fuels emit too much, we must begin thinking about how to live without them and how to build that path. I say this freely, because I am from a country that has oil ... but also a country that produces large amounts of biodiesel, a country in which 87% of electricity is clean. I want everyone to have that."

Some of the countries supporting the roadmap include the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Switzerland, South Korea, Norway, Mexico, Kenya, Guyana, Chile, Bahrain, Ireland, Mongolia, Brazil and Colombia.

This approach mirrors challenges faced at COP29 in Azerbaijan, where countries failed to agree on the fossil fuel transition text in the final outcome document.

EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra told reporters on the sidelines of COP30 the bloc "likes" and "supports" the roadmap concept, but emphasized the need for broader participation beyond European leadership.

"What we want to make sure is that this is not going to be an endeavor of the Europeans and some others; we make sure that there is as large a group as possible of countries that can support it," Hoekstra said.

The roadmap initiative builds on Brazil's preliminary negotiating framework released Nov. 16, which outlined competing approaches for tracking fossil fuel transition progress through either annual reviews or deferring discussions until the 2028 global stocktake. Colombia is also circulating an invitation to countries to join the First International Conference for the Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels in April 2026.