COP30: Nations commit to quadruple output of sustainable fuels by 2035

Nineteen countries have committed to increasing sustainable fuel use by at least four times by 2035 from 2024 levels, ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference, which is taking place in Belém, Brazil from Nov. 10-21.

The pledge, which was launched at the Belém Climate Summit on Nov. 7, aims to accelerate decarbonization in hard-to-abate sectors including aviation, maritime transport, and heavy industry through coordinated international action on biofuels, biogas, synthetic fuels, and hydrogen and its derivatives.

"The pledge aims to provide political support and promote international cooperation to increase at least fourfold the use of sustainable fuels by 2035," Brazil, which heads the COP30 presidency, said in a statement.

This represents a significant multilateral effort to scale sustainable fuel markets ahead of Brazil's hosting of COP30, building on commitments made at COP28, where world leaders agreed to triple global renewable energy generation capacity by 2030.

The Belem 4X declaration outlines comprehensive cooperative actions, including aligning carbon accounting frameworks across sectors, providing clarity on support schemes to foster predictable demand, and enhancing technical support for emerging markets and developing economies.

Policy push

The International Energy Agency provided technical support for this commitment in its recent report titled Delivering Sustainable Fuels – Pathways to 2035.

Renewable fuels currently account for just 1.3% of global energy consumption, but some countries have achieved much higher penetration rates, with Brazil leading at nearly 10% of total energy use.

The Paris-based agency said forecasts show that sustainable fuels could quadruple globally by 2035 if existing and announced policies are fully implemented, though current trends suggest only gradual progress without accelerated policy support.

"By 2035, sustainable fuels would cover 10% of all global road transport demand, 15% of aviation demand and 35% of shipping fuel demand," the report added.

Janet Ranganathan, Managing Director of Strategy, Learning and Results at the World Resources Institute, said doubling biofuel production would create significant pressure for land conversion.

"Biofuel expansion should not further increase cropland use, and waste and residue-based biomass potentially offer a more sustainable pathway than feedstocks grown on dedicated land -- although the amounts are limited, making scalability challenging," she said in a statement.

The pledge has been backed by 19 countries including Armenia, Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Guatemala, Guinea, India, Italy, Japan, Maldives, Mexico, Mozambique, Myanmar, the Netherlands, Panama, North Korea, Sudan and Zambia.

Signatories have committed to "adopt ambitious national policies on sustainable fuels and reflecting this ambition in NDCs," according to the pledge text.

Progress on the Belém 4X pledge will be reviewed annually through ministerial meetings and reports until 2035, with the document calling on additional states to join the coalition and encouraging commitments from financial institutions, private sector entities and civil society organizations.