09 Nov 2021 | 15:43 UTC

COP26: New climate commitments 'still fall far short' of 2030 Paris trajectory

Highlights

UN updates Emissions Gap Report

0.5-1.5 billion mtCO2 improvement

12.5-27.0 billion mtCO2 improvement needed

A massive increase in 2030 climate action is still needed to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius this century despite recent net-zero commitments from 25 countries, the UN's environment program said Nov. 9.

Since the September cut-off point for the UN's Oct. 26 Emissions Gap Report 2021, new or updated unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions and other pledges resulted in a total reduction in 2030 emissions of 4.8 billion mtCO2e versus prior pledges, the UN said.

This was about 0.5 billion mtCO2e lower than the median estimate in the Emissions Gap Report 2021. Add in conditional NDCs, and the improvement amounted to 1.5 billion mtCO2e.

This was nowhere near enough, the UN said. Annual emissions needed to be 12.5 billion CO2e lower in 2023 to get on track with a 2 degrees C goal, and 27 billion mtCO2 lower to get on track with 1.5 degrees C, it said.

"Even considering the recent updated pledges for 2030, annual global GHG emissions would need to be roughly halved by 2030 to become consistent with a 1.5 C least-cost pathway," it said.

With full implementation of all net-zero pledges and announcement to date taken into account, in addition to updated unconditional and conditional NDCs, "warming over the 21st century is projected to be limited to 2.1 C and 1.9 C, respectively, with a 66% probability," the UN said.

For a 90% probability, projected temperatures were 2.5 C and 2.4 C respectively, it said.

Despite some G20 members publishing further detail, net-zero pledges showed a number of ambiguities relating to sectors and gases covered and the inclusion of carbon offsets.

"There is an urgent need to back up these pledges with near-term targets and actions that give confidence that net zero emissions can ultimately be achieved and the remaining carbon budget kept," it said.

S&P Global Platts assessed the price of CORSIA-eligible carbon offsets at $7.90/mtCO2e Nov. 8, up 887% since Platts started assessing the credits Jan. 4, 2021.