INTERVIEW: Renewables to play bigger role in Ukraine's postwar energy mix

Renewables will play a bigger role in Ukraine's postwar energy mix, Ukrainian Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources Ruslan Strilets told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"After achieving victory, we will definitely review our climate strategy and most likely increase the percentage of renewable energy in the mix," Strilets said in emailed comments June 23.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had a devastating environmental impact, with extensive infrastructure damage raising risks to commodities production and supply.

Ukraine estimates that 90% of wind and approximately 40%-50% of solar power have been taken out of operation due to the war.

Strilets said the attack on the Kakhovka dam June 6 is the most significant environmental crime since February 2022.

"As a result of the dam explosion by Russians, a massive wave of water swept away everything in its path downstream, and the Kakhovka Reservoir has already lost 72% of its volume," Strilets said.

Dead fish and animals, as well as chemicals, fuel and waste were swept into the Black Sea, with an estimated 150 mt of fuel oil leaking into the Dnieper river.

The reservoir also provided water supplies for cooling to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Kryviy Rih steelworks, as well as for irrigation in key agricultural regions in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine estimates that environmental losses resulting from Russia's invasion exceed Eur50 billion.

Its energy strategy up to 2030 was approved in 2021 and targets a 26% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.

Ukraine plans to achieve this by modernizing coal-fired power plants and heating facilities, increasing heat production from biomass, waste and residues from forestry and agriculture, and replacing fossil energy sources in thermal power plants with renewable energy sources.

Support for green transition

Ukraine's plan for postwar recovery and development include 53 environmental conservation projects requiring investment of around Eur25.5 billion.

The reconstruction should include green technologies and projects that meet EU standards, Strilets said.

"Achieving European environmental standards is one of the key conditions for international financial institutions to provide funding," he said.

Other Ukrainian and Western officials have said a green energy transition in Ukraine will underpin international support for the country's recovery and help secure global commodities supply security.

Ukraine and many Western officials expect Russia to cover a significant portion of the costs required for reconstruction.

War-associated emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions as a result of the war are already 120 million mt of CO2 equivalent, according to the War Emissions Accounting Initiative. This include emissions from fuel, the production and use of shells, damage to equipment and the construction of fortifications.

Strilets said that the number of fires larger than one hectare increased 36 times compared to the prewar 12-month period.

"These fires are mostly observed directly near the frontline, and many of them result in the destruction of forest areas. The total volume of additional emissions from war-related fires is estimated at 17.7 million mt of CO2 equivalent," he said.

Approximately 2.4 million hectares of forest have been occupied and require restoration, with almost one-third of Ukrainian forests affected by the conflict.

"Missiles and unexploded ordnance have arguably the greatest impact on all ecosystems. Currently, 30% of Ukraine's territory requires demining," Strilets said.

Recovering this land will take years, with the most heavily mined regions currently include Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk, he added.

Chemicals and heavy metals in mines and other ordinance make some areas too hazardous for agricultural use.

Ukraine estimates that 20% of its protected land is under occupation or in conflict zones.

The war's impact on the Ukrainian economy -- which shrunk 29% in 2022 -- has reduced some emissions, but Strilets said most of these emissions were transferred outside Ukraine.

"For example, due to the closure of Ukrainian airspace, airlines were forced to choose alternative routes on flights to East and Southeast Asia, leading to increased flight times and additional fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions," he added.