EDF confirms French nuclear output estimates for 2026/27, sees 2028 in wider range

French reactor operator EDF has confirmed its nuclear production targets for 2026 and 2027 in a range of 350 TWh to 370 TWh and added for the first time a range for 2028, it said Dec. 19 in a statement.

For 2028, the operator of France's 57 reactors set a range of 345 TWh to 375 TWh.

This estimate takes into account "increased uncertainty regarding the evolution of demand and the prospects for reactor modulation," the statement said.

The estimates also reflect major maintenance programs, including the completion of the fourth ten-year inspections of the 900 MW reactors and the start of the fourth ten-year inspections of the 1,300 MW reactors in 2026.

2025 output is on track to exceed 370 TWh for the first time since 2019 amid much improved reactor availability and despite rising modulation, which is the curtailment of production during periods of oversupply and very low prices.

Modulation of the French nuclear fleet reached 18 TWh in the first six months of 2025.

Grid operator RTE in a recent report said that modulation could rise to 50 TWh in 2030, compared to annual levels around 30-40 TWh in the meantime.

Long-term, EDF is committed to ensuring a production capacity of more than 400 TWh/year, it said in the Dec. 19 statement, referring to demand as the key factor for actual output.

Analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA forecast that annual output will dip only slightly in 2026 and 2027, to approximately 370 TWh and 364 TWh, respectively.

The predictions now include the 1.6-GW Flamanville-3 after France's first new reactor in a generation reached full power for the first time.

The reactor will come offline in September 2026 for a major first overhaul estimated to last about one year.

French year-ahead power in early December fell below Eur48/MWh, its lowest since 2020.

A slightly colder temperature outlook for early January lifted the Cal 2026 contract back above Eur50/MWh on EEX.