ERCOT braces for Tropical Storm Beryl to intensify, make landfall on Texas coast

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas issued a watch for Tropical Storm Beryl with the storm expected to have an adverse impact as it intensifies and makes landfall in the ERCOT region.

"This is a notice for market participants to have their operations be prepared for the tropical storm," an ERCOT spokesperson said around 2 pm CT July 7. "At this time, the grid is operating under normal conditions. ERCOT will continue to monitor conditions and provide any updates on our social media channels."

Beryl is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall in the region between Corpus Christi and Galveston July 8.

Market conditions

ERCOT South Hub and Houston Hub real-time prices were about $16.50/MWh around 2 pm CT July 7. In comparison, South Hub real-time prices were around $16.75/MWh at the same time July 6, while Houston Hub real-time pries spiked into the $200s/MWh.

Wind-powered generation dipped to as low as 657 MW around 10 am CT July 6, after averaging 15.674 GW since July 1, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Hourly Electric Grid Monitor. Solar-powered generation slipped to about 6.85 GW July 5 after averaging 8.45 GW July 1-4.

Both nuclear-powered power plants in Texas were operating at 100% capacity, as of July 5, according to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Storm path

Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again later July 7 and continue strengthening overnight before reaching the Texas coast for landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook. The storm is moving north-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico near Texas at about 10 mph, as of 1 pm CT July 7. The storm is expected to turn toward the north on July 8.

"On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early July 8," according to the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook. "Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late July 8 and July 9."

The US National Weather Service has issued a hurricane warning for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass, meaning hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

What's happened

California Gov. Gavin Newsom deployed California firefighters to assist in staffing a Federal Emergency Management Agency Incident Support Team which will provide assistance for two FEMA Type 3 Urban Search and Rescue Teams, Newsom's office announced July 5.

"In times of crisis, California stands ready to help," Newsom said in a July 5 statement. "We're deploying emergency responders to support Texans as they prepare against this dangerous hurricane."

Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just northeast of Tulum the morning of July 5 as a category 2 storm, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm was expected to move west-northwestward before moving northward toward the western Gulf coast, and intensify while over the water again before making landfall along the Texas coast.