Interbasin competition intensifies as more LNG cargoes divert to Asia

Asian LNG buyers have diverted at least eight Atlantic Basin cargoes away from Europe since the Middle East war began Feb. 28, as escalating supply risks following strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan facility heighten near‑term urgency in Asia and reshape trade flows, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.

The escalation has lifted global LNG prices on fears of tighter Atlantic Basin supply, just as Europe enters its gas storage injection season.

"Think we will start to see the real aftermath in the next few weeks, on the one hand Asia will likely burn as much coal as they can, but there'll be pockets of demand they have to fill, and they'll need the LNG over peak summer seasons ...," an Atlantic-based trader said. "Even if storage targets are relaxed, the risk just gets pushed to winter, so Europe will be competing in Q3 and Q4 for the extra cargoes."

Adding to the previous seven diversions, the TotalEnergies-chartered Point Fortin, which loaded in Freeport's LNG facility in Texas March 7, was seen conducting a two-port discharge, first delivering to the floating storage and regasification unit in Jamaica March 11 and departing the same day toward Europe.

According to data from S&P Global Energy CERA, Point Fortin loaded 3.21 billion cubic feet from Freeport LNG and unloaded roughly 8% of that, or 0.28 Bcf, to the floating storage and regasification unit, with the remainder still onboard as cargo.

The ship was then seen rerouting south March 19 — a day after Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City was hit by missile strikes — potentially heading toward the Cape of Good Hope and into the Pacific Ocean. However, until recently, it has been seen idling near the coast of Senegal, according to CAS data.

Also March 19, the TotalEnergies-chartered La Seine, after loading at Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG Plant in Louisiana, was seen diverting from Europe toward the Cape of Good Hope and potentially Asia, CAS data showed.

TotalEnergies did not yet respond to a request for comment from Platts by the time of publication March 24.

"[Arbitrage] through Panama is open, so any cargoes that can pay up will want to likely take it through there; otherwise, you will see cargoes for April and May still head to Europe, there's some diversions, but a lot of volume is still in the Atlantic," a second Atlantic Basin-based trader said.

Panama Canal dynamics

All of the observed Atlantic Basin cargoes from the start of the war up to March 19 that appeared to change course for Asia headed for the Cape of Good Hope, CAS data showed.

In another trade‑flow shift, the QatarEnergy‑chartered Bu Fintas, which loaded at the Plaquemines LNG facility and may have partially discharged on March 19 at Sergipe, Brazil, continuing its voyage toward Asia without indicating a final destination, CAS data showed.

Despite these diversions, freight rates through the Panama Canal to Asia sit at more competitive rates of $2.81/million British thermal units from the US Gulf Coast compared to through the Cape of Good Hope at $4.01/MMBtu, Platts data showed March 23.

"So during the past year, where we've seen very limited LNG transits through the canal, LPG took its place," an S&P Global analyst said. "The reason being was that there has been an abundance of LNG shipping capacity and low rates that made the Cape of Good Hope competitive."

Yet lately, the Panama Canal Authority booking data on March 19 pointed to potential forward planning by US LNG exporters into the Pacific Basin, with single southbound LNG transit slots reserved across March 23, March 24, March 30, April 3-8, April 14, and April 21.

The latest cargo diversions were aimed at addressing the immediate supply gap caused by disruptions in the Middle East, while buying activity in Asia is expected to become more aggressive as the last Middle East and Qatar Energy‑loaded LNG cargoes arrive in the region, market participants told Platts on the Sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston.

Netback economics point toward Asia

LNG netbacks from DES JKM to a US Gulf Coast FOB basis were estimated at $18.95/MMBtu through the Cape of Good Hope, assuming two-stroke ship freight costs of $4.01/MMBtu, and $20.15/MMBtu via the Panama Canal, reflecting freight costs of $2.81/MMBtu, Platts data showed on March 23.

By comparison, the netback from DES Northwest Europe to US FOB was $17.83/MMBtu on March 23, implying a $2.32/MMBtu discount to the DES JKM netback via the Panama Canal. In other words, a US FOB cargo could capture an implied $2.32/MMBtu premium over European delivered prices, equating to over $8 million on a standard large‑scale LNG ship.

The diversions come as market participants said DES NWE prices need to rise to retain cargoes in the basin, or risk losing further volumes.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the DES Northwest Europe for May at $19.143/MMBtu March 23, down 56 cents day over day and roughly 15% higher week over week.

Platts assessed the benchmark price for LNG delivered into Northeast Asia at $20.683/MMBtu March 24, down $2.277/MMBtu day over day, but 2.60% higher week over week and 94% above pre‑war levels of $10.697/MMBtu Feb. 27.

The diversions come as US liquefaction capacity has been running above nameplate levels, with portfolio players using the opportunity to swap cargoes to capture arbitrage opportunities, while producers leverage the environment to secure additional offtakers for their projects.