PJM approves over $1.3 billion in transmission system projects in 2019

The PJM Interconnection Management Board approved 80 new baseline transmission projects during 2019 at an estimated cost of $1.27 billion and 95 new network transmission projects at an estimated cost of over $100 million, the grid operator said Tuesday.

PJM's Regional Transmission Expansion Plan process studies the dynamics of multiple factors, including those arising out of public policy, market efficiency, aging infrastructure, operations performance and demand-side trends, according to PJM's 2019 RTEP report.

Since 1999, PJM's board has approved transmission system enhancements totaling approximately $37.3 billion, of which roughly $30 billion represents baseline projects to ensure compliance with North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards, regional and local transmission owner planning criteria and to address market efficiency congestion relief, according to the report.

An additional $6.4 billion represents network facilities to enable nearly 90,000 MW of incremental generation capacity to interconnect with the PJM grid.

The emphasis on baseline projects reflects a shift in the drivers shaping the need for transmission enhancement and expansion through study year 2024, PJM said in a blog post introducing the report.

"Flat load growth in the overall system, energy efficiency, generation shifts and aging infrastructure, among other factors, continue to move transmission need away from large-scale, cross-system backbone projects," the grid operator said.

Transmission investment growth has instead been focused on projects driven by transmission owner criteria, market efficiency congestion, generator deactivation and localized reliability criteria needs.

PJM's RTEP power flow modeling was based on the 2019 load forecast that shows a 10-year summer, normalized peak growth rate of 0.3%. Average 10-year-annualized summer growth rates for individual PJM zones ranged from minus 0.3% to 0.9%, according to the report.

The grid operator said power demand growth in its footprint is being driven by evolving customer behaviors that include more efficient manufacturing equipment and home appliances, along with distributed energy resources like behind-the-meter, rooftop solar installations.

Capacity mix changes

The RTEP process is being impacted by an "unprecedented capacity shift" driven by federal and state public policy and "broader fuel economics," PJM said.

Specifically, the following factors are driving changes to PJM's power generation capacity portfolio:

• New generating plants powered by Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas
• New wind and solar units driven by federal and state renewable incentives
• Generating plant deactivations
• Market impacts introduced by demand resources and energy efficiency programs

Natural gas plants totaling nearly 35,000 MW account for 43% of the generation capacity currently seeking capacity interconnection rights in PJM's new services queue, but solar generation has overtaken gas as the largest percentage of units seeking capacity interconnection rights, according to the report.

"Solar interconnection requests have more than doubled, by megawatt, in the past year," PJM said.

If submitted deactivation plans are carried out, more than 27,000 MW of coal-fired generation will have to be deactivated between 2011 and 2020, as public policy and coal plant age -- many over 40 years old -- have combined to make "ongoing operation prohibitively expensive," the grid operator said.

In addition to these significant generation mix changes, behind-the-meter resources like rooftop solar installations impact demand side of PJM resource adequacy by impacting PJM's load forecast on a day-ahead and real-time basis.

Transmission infrastructure is also aging, contributing to an increased need for investment, as condition assessments have identified "deteriorating facilities built in the 1960s and earlier," PJM said.