Biden's 2030 economywide emissions target attainable if done in 'right way': EPRI

The US can reach President Joe Biden's goal of reducing economywide emissions 50% from 2005 levels by 2030 so long as the nation works collaboratively and focuses on affordability and reliability, Electric Power Research Institute CEO Arshad Mansoor said Jan. 13.

"We're optimistic that if we keep our focus on affordability, reliability and clean energy and make sure we understand and take actions to make sure that this transition is equitable, we will get to where we have put our near-term targets and we'll have technologies that are ready for the longer-term targets," Mansoor told reporters.

Electrifying transportation

The US will need to electrify other sectors to drive down emissions, making the nation increasingly reliant on the electric grid. Mansoor projected that electrifying the transportation sector will be a key focus for the nation this decade, with electric vehicles accounting for about 50% to 60% of new cars before 2030.

The US will need to prepare the grid for a growing electric vehicle fleet, more renewable energy sources and extreme climate-related weather events, he said.

In addition to maintaining and upgrading the US' hydropower and nuclear generators, the US will need technologies that are not yet at-scale, affordable or reliable to meet decarbonization targets, Mansoor said.

"If you look at how electricity will turn the transportation sector, I think what has happened last year is a clear motivation that achieving 50% reduction by 2030 from the US perspective is possible if you do it the right way," he said. "We have to be careful as we are cleaning the electricity sector how fast and how deep we clean because electricity needs to be affordable, and electricity needs to continue to be reliable and resilient."

The White House has said its 2030 target aligns with the Biden administration's goal of reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

S&P Global Platts Analytics projected in its reference case that US CO2 emissions will decline by 1.4% annually. These emissions must fall by 4.2% annually to reach Platts Analytics' 2-degree-Celsius case, according to its Future Energy Outlooks.

Additionally, Platts Analytics forecasted that US CO2 emissions will fall by 22% by 2030.

"Current emitting fleets and capital stock – be it of automobiles, building, trucks, industrial facilities – will take time to be replaced," according to Platts Analytics. "Much faster turnover will be very costly, and will require stronger EV incentives and/or bans on the sale of new internal combustion vehicles."

'Massive change'

Such a transition will mark a "massive change" for the electricity sector, said Daniel Brooks, EPRI vice president of integrated grid and energy systems.

About 20% of the nation's end-use energy is supplied by electricity, Brooks said. To reach a 50%-52% emissions reduction by 2030, electricity would need to account for roughly 33% of end-use energy, resulting in significant power demand growth.

To reach net-zero economywide emissions by midcentury, the US would need electricity to account for between 40% and 60% of end-use energy, "as much as two to three times the dependence on the electric sector as we have today in terms of all of society's energy needs," Brooks said.

As a result, the nation must focus on increasing, rather than maintaining, the sector's reliability and resiliency, he said.

"In order to keep the risk to society the same, we have to actually increase the reliability and the resiliency of the grid," Brooks said. "Electric grid reliability, resiliency is not a barrier to achieving decarbonization. It's a prerequisite."