Russian oil exports to top three buyers hit lowest since 2022

Russian crude oil deliveries to India, China and Turkey dropped to their lowest weekly volume since 2022 in the seven days to Dec. 16, shiptracking data shows, as a record volume of barrels at sea have struggled to find homes in their typical export destinations.

According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, 11 million barrels of Russian crude were delivered to the country's top three buyers -- India, China and Turkey -- in the course of the week. For the first time since April, Turkey's weekly Russian crude imports ground to a halt. Across the three lead buyers, imports of Russian crude were down by more than a third from the previous week, and fell from a five-week average of 19 million barrels.

The slump in Russian imports from the country's top three buyers comes as stricter sanctions appear to have dented buying appetite in recent weeks. On Nov. 21, the US sanctioned the oil producer's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, targeting the source of half of Russia's oil supply. An upcoming EU import ban on fuel made from Russian crude has added scrutiny to the bloc's suppliers, notably India and Turkey.

According to the latest available CAS data, the volume of Russian crude on the water shot up to 137 million barrels in the week ending Dec. 14, representing a record high. A pile-up in tankers of Urals crude has become particularly visible off China, where 19.2 million barrels of supply are currently floating.

Of the identified companies linked to Russian oil shipments, Rosneft and Lukoil remained the top suppliers, CAS data showed. Rosneft handled 31% of the export volumes, followed by Lukoil with a 9% share and Gazprom with an 8% share. Lukoil's market share rebounded by five percentage points week over week; however, new entrants Fortis Transport, Redwood and Zheshang Resource Fze continued to handle significant volumes. None of the companies were available for comment.

On Dec. 18, the UK government announced it had sanctioned NNK, a new exporter, as part of efforts to prevent smaller companies from minimizing supply disruptions. Bodies such as the International Energy Agency have identified several other recent entrants to the Russian market, warning that such companies could limit the impact of recent sanctions enforcement.

Import hubs

India, Russia's largest crude buyer, contributed to the largest drop in imports in the seven days to Dec. 16, receiving some 5.9 million barrels of Russian crude and 4 million barrels less than it did the previous week.

Deliveries to both the Nayara terminal, home to India's Vadinar refinery, and Reliance-operated Jamnagar, were lower week over week, falling from a combined 29 million barrels to 15.7 million barrels. Reliance said Nov. 20 that it had halted Russian crude imports into the export-oriented refinery at its Jamnagar complex, which comprises two facilities. The company was not available to comment on its latest import activity.

In China, arrivals of Russian crude fell by 100,000 barrels to 5.1 million barrels week over week, with imports into the port of Longkou, home to the EU-sanctioned Yulong Petrochemical facility, rising 100,000 barrels to 3 million barrels. Lower deliveries were offset by growing arrivals from Brazil, which delivered 12.1 million barrels of oil to China in the week, as well as from Middle Eastern suppliers.

In a notable pivot, Russian crude deliveries into Turkey dried out completely. In the year-to-date, Russia has accounted for almost 60% of Turkish crude exports, according to CAS data, although rising Iraqi deliveries have recently displaced supplies.

Outside its three main export outlets, Russia delivered three 3 million barrels of crude to Singapore, marking the highest volume since May, CAS data showed.

Fuel exports

In the refined product market, India's and Turkey's exports fell sharply week over week, while China-loaded volumes rose.

As refiners assess their strategies ahead of upcoming EU sanctions set to take effect in January, cargoes have continued to flow into the European market, albeit in lower volumes. No cargoes from India, China or Turkey left for Northwest Europe in the week to Dec. 16, while a single 200,000 diesel/gasoil cargo departed Turkey for the Mediterranean. Volumes are subject to change, however, and exclude shipments showing interim locations such as the Red Sea and South Africa.

In the previous week, the three countries shipped 2.2 million barrels of fuel into the European market -- mostly diesel/gasoil and gasoline.

India exported a total of 5.9 million barrels of oil products in the week, down from 8.4 million barrels in the previous week, with supplies mostly bound for East Africa and the Persian Gulf. Nayara Energy's 400,000 b/d Vadinar refinery in Gujarat exclusively delivered its 300,000 million barrels of oil product exports into Oman, CAS data showed.

Turkey's weekly refined product exports fell 87% to 200,000 barrels, all originating in the port of Aliaga.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Russia's flagship Urals crude grade $29.15/b below the Dated Brent benchmark on Dec. 18, marking its widest discount since April 2023.