China's CNPC pushes peak oil demand forecast to 2040 on resilient emerging economies

Global oil demand is expected to peak by 2040, compared with a previous estimate of 2030 made in 2024, due to stronger-than-anticipated resilience in consumption, according to experts from the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute at the International Energy Executive Forum 2025 in Beijing on Dec. 11.

The revised outlook projects global oil demand to peak at about 4.83 billion metric tons (97 million b/d) in 2040, rising from 4.54 billion mt in 2025, ETRI Vice President Wu Mouyuan said at the forum. ETRI is the think tank for the Chinese state-owned oil company CNPC.

This reflects a 5.2% increase in peak demand volume compared with the previous projection set in 2024, according to Wu.

ETRI attributed the delay to sustained growth in oil product consumption in emerging economies and steady increases in demand for chemical feedstocks and aviation fuel -- factors that may prolong elevated crude import requirements beyond earlier expectations.

Wu said that in a "chasm scenario," which reflects heightened global divisions, peak oil demand could be postponed even further -- to around 2045 -- with peak volumes reaching about 5 billion mt.

"Oil demand has demonstrated greater resilience than expected, with emerging economies seeing sustained growth in oil product consumption and stable increases in demand for chemical feedstocks and aviation fuel," Wu said.

Wang Haibo, director of oil market research at ETRI, highlighted the impact of US energy policy on global demand forecasts, noting that numerous institutions have also extended their projections for peak oil demand beyond the previously anticipated peak in 2030, which was estimated in 2024.

ETRI's updated outlook reflects a wider trend among energy forecasters who are reevaluating the pace of the global energy transition.

On Nov. 12, the International Energy Agency said that it could be another quarter of a century before the world reaches peak oil demand under the current policy climate, citing shifting US decarbonization goals, rapid growth in electricity consumption and slowing adoption of electric vehicles as factors shaping its revised long-term outlook.

According to forum delegates, a delay in the global oil demand peak could significantly impact crude trade flows, while encouraging sustained investment in upstream oil production capacity and refining infrastructure, particularly in regions serving expanding Asian markets.

Sinopec's research institute, as well as S&P Global Energy CERA, has maintained its estimate that China's total oil demand would peak in 2027.