OPEC+ output grows to 40.58 mil b/d as group still struggles to meet quotas: Platts survey

OPEC+ increased crude output by 320,000 b/d in November, as growth in Libya and Kazakhstan outweighed declines in Russia, Iraq and Venezuela, according to the latest Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The alliance pumped 40.58 million b/d in November, including OPEC production of 26.71 million b/d and a further 13.87 million b/d from its non-OPEC allies.

The survey showed that countries with quotas continued to overproduce in November, but the group came closer to complying with its targets. It produced 91,000 b/d above collective quotas in November, compared with 179,000 b/d in October.

Overproduction has been a major source of tension within the group in 2024 and its biggest challenge, putting downward pressure on crude prices and requiring overproducers including Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia to submit "compensation plans."

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Dated Brent at $73.76/b on Dec. 9, below the fiscal breakeven oil price of many producers and 2024 highs of more than $93/b in mid-April. High output in the Americas, expectations of a supply glut in the first quarter of 2025, weak Chinese demand and a slight ratcheting down of tensions in the Middle East are also weighing on prices.

Kazakhstan posted the biggest increase in November output, which rose by 230,000 b/d after its major Kashagan field and Atyrau refinery came back from maintenance. Kazakhstan, which has been one of the main overproducers in 2024, has seen big swings in output in the second half of 2024 as it attempts to improve compliance through upstream maintenance. Works at its key Tengiz field are understood to be ongoing.

On the core OPEC side, Libya saw the biggest jump in production in November, rising 170,000 b/d month on month to 1.17 million b/d, as it made a full recovery from an oil shutdown prompted by a political feud over the leadership of the Libyan central bank, which receives and distributes oil revenues. The increase takes Libyan output back to the 14-month highs seen in April.

Libya, alongside Iran and Venezuela, are exempt from quotas under the OPEC+ agreement.

Iraqi output fell 40,000 b/d in November, the survey found, but remained 200,000 b/d above its quota and most recent public compensation plan.

Despite its rising output, OPEC+ continues to pursue a policy of major production cuts. It agreed Dec. 5 to delay easing voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million b/d until April -- the third such delay.

The group also agreed to extend the compensation period for overproducers until the end of June 2026 and rolled over a further 3.6 million b/d of overlapping groupwide cuts until the end of 2026.

The group could choose to amend these plans at any time, subject to market conditions.