US propane glut deepens as Europe struggles to absorb record inflows

A wave of US propane continues to arrive into Europe even as seasonal demand underperforms, deepening a structural surplus that market players say is becoming increasingly difficult to absorb.

US LPG shipments to Europe, the Mediterranean and North Africa reached 272,800 mt in the opening days of November, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.

The Mediterranean took the lion's share at 181,600 mt, followed by North Africa at 70,200 mt, while Northwest Europe absorbed just 21,100 mt. Propane accounted for 200,000 mt of these flows, with the remainder butane.

Turkey was the biggest recipient at 79,700 mt, followed by France and Spain at 68,700 mt and 54,300 mt respectively.

However, US exports are projected by CAS to exceed 1.4 million mt into Europe and North Africa by the end of November, more than 100,000 mt above October arrivals and roughly 400,000 mt higher year-on-year -- suggesting intensifying length into winter.

The inflow comes amid record-high inventories in the US. US Energy Information Administration data released Nov. 5 showed that US stocks of propane and propylene climbed by 413,000 barrels to 106.094 million barrels in the week ending Oct. 31, the highest level ever recorded by the EIA -- keeping Mont Belvieu and CIF NWE propane under persistent pressure.

"The US propane market solidified its status in early November 2025 as a buyers' market. Propane prices and propane-to-crude ratio remained under downward pressure," analysts at S&P Global Energy said. "The weekly inventory has reached a new record-high inventory, and it may go higher in the coming weeks."

One Northwest Europe-based market player told Platts that he sees "very heavy" fundamentals.

Platts assessed the propane CIF NWE large cargo market at $422.75/mt on Nov. 6, over $176.25/mt below the price a year ago of $599/mt. Across the Atlantic, Platts assessed propane FOB USGC at $351.15 /mt on Nov. 6, down from $551.79/mt on the same day in 2024.

Consumption lags behind mounting supply

Yet the demand side in Europe has failed to respond. Petrochemical demand for propane as a feedstock remains muted as the continent grapples with several rounds of cracker rationalizations.

"Cash premiums in both Asia and NWE are weak," a second Northwest Europe-based market player said.

Also, unseasonably warm temperatures have delayed heating-season drawdowns. As a third Northwest Europe-based market participant put it, "We are not selling enough... it is ridiculously sunny and warm for this time of year."

"It's really quiet, especially for November, I have to say," a fourth NWE-based player said.

The result is an increasingly one-directional market: barrels keep arriving, but consumption is accelerating too slowly, leaving Europe to absorb growing volume at steadily lower price levels.