Nigeria oil theft at 16-year low, but challenges remain: officials

Nigeria has been able to drastically reduce the quantity of crude stolen from pipelines and facilities to around 9,600 b/d, its industry regulator said late Sept. 11, as government officials remain optimistic about hiking oil output to 2 million b/d by the end of 2025.

In an update, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, which publishes monthly production figures, said crude oil losses from theft and sabotage had dropped to the lowest level in nearly 16 years.

"In July 2025, daily losses stood at 9,600 b/d, the lowest figure since 2009 when losses dropped to all-time low of 8,500 b/d," the commission said.

Nigeria recorded crude losses averaging 11,300 b/d in 2024, compared to a high of 102,000 b/d in 2021, the NUPRC stated.

Nigerian legislators have previously placed the level of crude lost to theft and attacks on pipelines, export terminals and installations as high as 400,000 b/d, as did Nuhu Ribadu, the chief security adviser to the Nigerian president, in 2023.

The commission linked the sharp drop in production losses to the government's efforts to combat theft and sabotage through "a balanced mix of kinetic and non-kinetic strategies."

President Bola Tinubu, who promised reforms of the country's oil sector during his successful election campaign, declared a state of emergency in the industry in June, directing security agencies to go after thieves and vandals in the Niger Delta region. Meanwhile, attempts have also been made to foster better ties with local communities.

That has followed the sale of onshore and shallow water assets by foreign oil majors to local companies -- including Seplat, Oando and the Renaissance consortium -- which say they are better able to manage relationships with host communities.

Years of pipeline tapping by gangs in the Delta prevented Nigeria from producing up to its maximum capacity, thought to be around 2.5 million b/d. It was one of the key reasons that Nigeria's OPEC quota was trimmed at the start of 2024, following years of underproduction.

Nigeria's oil output including condensates averaged 1.71 million b/d in July, with peak production rising to 1.84 million b/d in the month, according NUPRC data.

The chief executive of the NUPRC, Gbenga Komolafe, said Aug. 4 that Nigeria's oil output had climbed to 1.78 million b/d, with Abuja aiming to ramp up production to 2 million b/d by end of 2025.

Coordinated response

However, despite the progress announced by the NUPRC, local player Renaissance warned Sept. 11 that insecurity and sabotage remain a key concern for operators in the Niger Delta, where they continue to imperil production and personnel.

"We are seeing increasingly sophisticated threats to subsea infrastructure and offshore assets," a company statement quoted Renaissance's head of Security Toye Fatoki, as saying, after meeting with Nigeria's Chief of Naval Staff in Abuja.

"A coordinated response with the Navy is essential, not only to deter criminal activity but to ensure the safe and stable operation of our facilities," Fatoki said.

The Renaissance consortium, which comprises Nigerian companies ND Western, Aradel Energy, First E&P, and Waltersmith, and international company Petrolin, agreed to buy British supermajor Shell's onshore and shallow water business in Nigeria, including a string of oil and gas licenses, in 2024.

The watershed deal closed in March 2025, leaving Shell to focus -- like other IOCs -- on Nigeria's more complex deepwater.