US lawmakers push Russian sanctions bill after Polish airspace incursions

Key US lawmakers say Russia's violation of Polish airspace should spur the US Congress to pass a bill to impose punishing sanctions and tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, but it remains unclear whether US President Donald Trump will back such a move.

Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican-South Carolina, described Russia's deployment of drones in Polish airspace as "insane," and called for action on his bill to impose a 500% duty on goods imported to the US from countries that buy Russian energy products.

"We stand ready to pass legislation authorizing bone-crushing new sanctions and tariffs that can be deployed at your discretion," Graham told Trump in a Sept. 10 post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat-Connecticut, the bill's co-sponsor, called on Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Republican-South Dakota, to immediately put the sanctions bill on the floor for a vote.

"Military aid, in concert with bone-crushing sanctions on Russia and its oil customers, will send an unmistakable message to Putin: Ukraine and its allies will not balk in the face of adversity," Blumenthal said.

Trump reaction

Crude futures moved higher after Trump posted to Truth Social: "What's with Russia violating Poland's airspace with drones? Here we go!"

At 1606 GMT, NYMEX October WTI was up $1.32 at $63.95/b, and ICE November Brent traded $1.28 higher at $67.67/b.

Trump has suggested that he has more action on Russia waiting in the wings, but it is unclear whether that includes the sanctions bill.

Speaking during a Sept. 3 briefing in the Oval Office with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, Trump touted his sanctions on India as an important action against Russia, adding, "I haven't done phase two yet or phase three."

Trump asked the EU to impose tariffs on China and India of up to 100% in a joint bid to raise Russia's economic costs and pressure it to end the war in Ukraine.

The US doubled its tariffs on India to 50% to curb Russian crude flows, though the impact so far has been limited.

The discount of Russian Urals FOB Primorsk to dated Brent has held steady at around $11/b since the additional Indian tariffs took effect Aug. 27.

Pressure options

The president has ample authority under existing law to increase pressure on Russia; he does not need the Graham bill to do so, said David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies. And Congress is unlikely to pass the measure until the White House requests it, he said.

But Ukrainians cannot fight the Russians with sanctions, they need weapons, Goldwyn said. "A serious response would be to encourage Europe to seize Russian funds and purchase anti-aircraft and other weapons for Ukraine," Goldwyn said.

Russian incursions into Polish airspace and accelerating attacks on Ukraine will increase pressure for the US, EU and other allies to do more, or seem to be doing more, said Rachel Ziemba, a senior adviser for Horizon Engage.

But the US and EU disagree on how best to add economic pressure, with Trump preferring secondary tariffs, and Europeans preferring to close loopholes on the shadow fleet and increase enforcement of existing sanctions, Ziemba said.

The threat of 100% tariffs on China and India does not seem likely, Ziemba said. "I would find a lower level of tariffs more credible," she said.

Ahead of the recent airspace violations, experts warned that Russia could start testing NATO's resolve.

Ilya Ponomarev, a former Russian politician, warned on Sept. 5 that even if there was a ceasefire in Ukraine, Russia would soon act against the Baltic states or Poland.

"The whole thing is not about territory, not about a particular country, it is about testing," he said during an Atlantic Council event.