Iran eyes nuclear talks revival hoping for upstream investment

Iranian officials are hoping a fresh round of nuclear talks with European countries could lead to an easing of sanctions and a return of international oil companies to help lift the country's production levels.

Against a background of Middle Eastern turmoil, Iranian officials are set to meet foreign ministry officials from France, Germany and the UK in Istanbul on July 25, foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said at his weekly press briefing on July 21. It follows a meeting at the weekend between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's nuclear adviser, Ali Larijani, in the Kremlin.

Talks are also due to take place on July 22 between foreign ministry officials from Iran, China and Russia, with the theme being the potential for "snap-back" sanctions and their implications for the oil trade, and how they might be mitigated, Baghaei said.

The discussions come against a backdrop of concern over Iran's nuclear program and the possibility of the country moving to nuclear weapons production, while Tehran is eager to ease its international isolation and attract investment.

The US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action during Donald Trump's first presidency in May 2018, with Washington stepping up sanctions enforcement and Iran's oil production levels suffering a significant plunge.

However, Iranian crude production rose by more than 1 million b/d under the subsequent Joe Biden presidency, as the administration increasingly prioritized Russia for sanctions.

Production targets

Iran's crude production in June was estimated to be 3.2 million b/d, in the Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Energy.

Iran's Economy Council agreed on July 15 on a target to raise oil output by 250,000 b/d under an emergency plan that relies on domestic funding, Tasnim reported.

It is not the first time a 250,000 b/d "emergency" increase has been targeted, with the same level of increase targeted in mid-August 2024. In May 2025, Iranian oil minister Mohsen Paknejad said his ministry has achieved a 150,000 b/d-capacity increase since August 2024.

However, Iranian oil production levels are shrouded in uncertainty. One recent report from the National Iranian Oil Company suggested the goal was to boost output by 250,000 b/d to 2.189 million b/d in 2024-25, and that this had already been achieved.

Russia is currently the main foreign investor in Iran's oil and gas industry. However, amid a lack of news from the Russian investors, recent production increases are thought to be mainly thanks to Iranian entities. These companies have implemented a multitude of production enhancement techniques in the era of sanctions.

When Paknejad took office in August 2024, his plan was to create 400,000 b/d of new oil output capacity by March 20, 2026. It is likely this would require a capacity increase of 250,000 b/d over the next eight months.

The country's seventh five-year plan dictates Iranian production capacity must reach 4.6 million b/d by March 2029. Paknejad has said this would require some $50 billion of investment and foreign know-how.

Iranian officials have stressed their readiness to accept US investment in the country's oil and gas sector, however, this presupposes overcoming nearly half a century of distrust between the two countries, and a complex web of sanctions. "We have always been — and still are — ready for economic, industrial, and commercial cooperation with Americans. But it is the U.S. sanctions that have prevented their presence in our country," President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a July 7 interview.