BP revises Q2 production guidance higher led by US shale

BP on July 11 revised its oil and gas production guidance for the second quarter upwards citing better-than-expected production by its US shale unit, but highlighted weaker oil prices and the impact of refinery maintenance in the quarter.

BP previously forecast its Q2 upstream production would be in line with the Q1 2025 level, which was down nearly 6% on year-earlier levels due to divestments and "base decline," mainly in its "gas & low-carbon" unit. Q1 had also featured a surge in upstream production costs per barrel of 5.6% year-on-year. BP has broadly been stabilizing its upstream production levels, with a 2% increase in 2024.

In its latest update note, ahead of publishing results on Aug. 5, BP said production had been higher quarter-on-quarter in its upstream oil unit, and slightly higher in "gas & low-carbon."

However, it highlighted lower oil and gas prices in its latest update, and noted that a "significantly higher level of turnaround activity" in its refining unit limited its ability to benefit from the seasonal fuel demand surge. Offsetting this, it said it expects to report a "strong" result from oil trading for the quarter.

BP's indicative refining marker margin rose from $15.20/b in Q1 2025 to $21.10/b in Q2.

It also said net debt -- a concern for investors in recent months -- would be slightly lower in the Q2 results than at the end of the first quarter.

The Platts North Sea crude benchmark Dated Brent averaged $67.88/b in Q2 2025, with prices swinging by almost $20 in a relatively volatile quarter, compared with an average of $84.97/b in Q2 2024.