Mexico eyes $6 bil-$9 bil in clean energy investment, but industry remains cautious

Mexico's incoming federal government expects to attract $6 billion-$9 billion in clean energy investment by 2030 under a new development model, according to the country's undersecretary of energy planning, Jorge Islas Samperio.

However, energy executives, speaking at a June 5 Mexico City forum along with Isla Samperio, say the goal may be difficult to achieve unless the regulatory and commercial frameworks are clearly defined.

The administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum aims to mobilize public and private capital to accelerate the energy transition, while continuing to rely on natural gas for system reliability, Islas Samperio said.

The up to $9 billion by private sector would add between 6.4 GW and 9.5 GW of new renewable capacity, supported by battery storage, to complement investments planned by state utility CFE, Islas Samperio said.

"We want the private sector to help us contribute to regional development through these investments," Islas Samperio said. New industry rules would be published in the coming weeks, he added.

CFE plans to invest $23 billion through 2030, including an initial phase of 12 generation projects: six solar plants with battery storage, five gas-fired, combined-cycle plants and one internal combustion facility, Islas Samperio said. The five combined-cycle plants would add 3.4 GW of capacity, while the solar projects are expected to contribute 1.6 GW, according to a ministry presentation.

Battery storage capacity, supported in part by private investments, is expected to reach nearly 2 GW to help integrate intermittent renewables, Islas Samperio said. However, he acknowledged that Mexico will continue to depend on natural gas for dispatchable capacity.

Industry questions bankability

Despite the government's targets, industry leaders expressed concern about the lack of a clear commercial framework and regulatory certainty.

"On paper, it's easy to say you want 6 to 9 GW, but in reality, the model has to be bankable — and that's still a question mark," said Narcís de Carreras, CEO at developer Valia. Key instruments that previously supported sector growth are no longer permitted under current policy, he noted.

The government projects national power demand will reach 64.9 GW by 2030, with clean energy supplying 38% of the total load under its conservative scenario, Islas Samperio said.

While renewable energy is expected to play a greater role under the Sheinbaum administration, permitting bottlenecks and interconnection delays will need to be addressed swiftly, according to an S&P Global Energy analysis.

Energy projects that peak demand, currently around 50.7 GW, will grow at a compound annual rate of 2.7%, reaching 65 GW by 2035 — five years later than the government forecast.

Gas infrastructure remains a critical gap

Panelists also emphasized the continued importance of gas in Mexico's energy mix and highlighted the absence of detailed plans to address infrastructure needs.

"There are real needs for more gas across all sectors of the Mexican economy," said Vania Laban, head of the National Natural Gas Association. "But it is not clear how the issue will be tackled — or when."

Mexico's energy policy has historically focused on crude oil, to the detriment of gas infrastructure development, Laban said.

Mexico's gas demand averaged 8.9 Bcf/d in 2024 — up 200 MMcf/d from 2023 and 1 Bcf/d from 2020 — a trend expected to continue amid rising power sector and industrial consumption. National gas use is forecast to average 9.4 Bcf/d in 2025, with additional demand from CFE's planned 2 GW of new gas-fired capacity. By 2030, demand is projected to reach 11.3 Bcf/d, climbing to 14.2 Bcf/d by 2050, according to Energy data.

Without greater clarity on how new investments will be structured or how projects will achieve financial close, stakeholders say the proposed strategy may struggle to deliver on its targets.

Islas Samperio said more details on the investment framework will be made public in the coming month.