India's Russian crude imports set to rise after US sanctions waiver extension

Indian imports of Russian crude are set to rise as refiners have begun negotiating cargoes following the extension of the sanctions waiver granted by Washington, a move that could push the robust import growth seen in March even further, trade sources and analysts said April 21.

Amid disruptions of flows through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East conflict and the initial sanctions waiver, India's appetite for Russian crude rebounded to an average of 2.1 million barrels/day in March, almost double February's 1.1 million b/d. This was India's highest level of Russian-origin crude oil discharges since July 2023, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.

"The extension of the sanctions waiver for Russian oil will provide another opportunity for importers like India to pick up volumes that are on water. Indian crude imports from Russia had sharply climbed above 2 million b/d in March, and volumes could potentially rise even further in April and May," said Benjamin Tang, head of liquid bulk at CAS.

The US Department of the Treasury has authorized the delivery and sale of Russian crude and petroleum products loaded on ships through April 17 for one month, as the Middle East war continues to disrupt oil supplies. The waiver does not apply to transactions involving Iran, North Korea and Cuba, the Treasury said in a general license on April 17. A previous monthlong waiver on some Russian oil sales was in effect through April 11.

Negotiations on

As of April 20, an estimated 98 million barrels of identified Russian oil were on water, according to CAS. Based on ship positions, about 48 million barrels of this volume could be sold to India, while the remainder could be destined for buyers in China or Southeast Asia.

"Refiners have already stated negotiations. There are quite a few cargoes of Russian crude on water that many refiners would like to pick up. Now, it is not a question of price but securing supplies," an Indian refining source said.

Urals supplies into Indian ports have traded at a premium to forward Dated Brent since March 17. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Urals DAP India at a premium of $8/b to forward Dated Brent on April 20, compared with a discount of $11.99/b to forward Dated Brent on Feb. 27.

The US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire on April 22. US President Donald Trump, speaking on The John Fredericks Show, said Iran would proceed with negotiations, despite limited indications from Tehran that it would participate in talks scheduled for later on April 21 in Pakistan.