Sanctions relief, reserve release could ease prices but pose risks: analysts

The US can ease pressure on oil prices by expanding oil sanctions waivers or by participating in the release of international reserves, but both options have their drawbacks, analysts said on March 10.

On the sanctions front, the US could expand sanctions waivers to allow India to import Russian oil that is not yet loaded on tankers, and it could allow other countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products.

The US Treasury Department on March 5 issued a waiver allowing the sale and delivery of sanctioned Russian oil on tankers to India. Secretary Scott Bessent later said the US could unwind additional measures restricting Russia's crude to "create supply."

One additional measure could be to allow India to buy future Russian exports, in addition to Russian oil already at sea, Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an email. This would essentially give India a complete pass on the major sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil imposed last November, he said.

"This would alleviate potential shortages in India and restore large discounts to the benefit of Indian refiners, while enabling Russian crude prices – and Putin's warfighting revenues – to recover."

Since the US issued the waiver on March 5, the tanker Sarah, which was originally bound for Singapore, altered its course and headed for India, analysts at S&P Global Commodities at Sea said in the Russian Crude Oil market briefing published on March 10. Five other tankers with Russian crude have changed course in the past several days, but their new destinations are not yet defined, the briefing said.

"Current data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea, as of March 9, suggests that approximately 65 million barrels of Russian crude are currently on water within a 30-day voyage radius of India," the briefing said.

Sanctions waiver options

Ben Cahill, a nonresident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said that while it is unlikely the US would issue a similar waiver to China, the Treasury Department could perhaps issue a blanket temporary license for buyers around the world.

"Of course, this would undercut US pressure on the Russian economy and raise doubts about future sanctions enforcement," Cahill said in an email. "In the end, this is an acute oil market shock that has to be resolved via a resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz."

The US could also waive sanctions to allow Europe to buy jet fuel, fuel oil and other products from Russia, Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, said in an email.

But for this to be effective, there would need to be a sanctions waiver from both the US and the EU, Wald said. "The latest I have heard is that the EU does not support waiving sanctions, so the situation is complicated."

A pair of lawmakers on March 9 asked US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for answers about the decision to ease sanctions on Russia.

"Even more troubling than the rise of oil prices is the lifeline the United States has given to Russia just as US officials confirmed Russia is providing Iranian forces the locations of American military assets, including warships and aircraft," Senator Ruben Gallego, Democrat-Arizona, and Representative Sam Liccardo, Democrat-California, said in a letter.

The lawmakers asked Bessent to respond by March 14 to a number of questions, including whether additional sanctions would be waived, what Treasury is doing to prevent Russian oil from filling the gap in global supply, and whether Treasury had oil price stabilization mechanisms in place before military operations began.

Reserve release

The US could also take part in a coordinated release of international petroleum reserves to reduce oil price pressure.

The G7 has instructed the International Energy Agency to begin exchanging with its member states to prepare for a potential release of emergency oil stocks, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said March. 10.

Collective stock releases by the IEA have ranged from 60 million barrels to 80 million barrels in any single announcement, and a decision can be confirmed within the space of a few days.

Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, said that 300-400 million barrels of strategic reserves could be released. That would be between 25% and 33% of government-controlled strategic stockpiles, Book said during an event hosted by CSIS.

"There are two ways to think about that," Book said. "One is the market says, 'Oh, thank God, you're coming to the rescue.' The other side of that is, 'Oh, my God, you're doing that?' he said. "So, I think there may be some consequences to that action," he said.

For specific countries and regions, targeted releases of certain oil products (such as LPG for cooking in South Asian markets) could provide significant relief, Seigle said. "Paradoxically, however, the use of inventories to offset a supply disruption necessarily reduces the remaining cushion, and that bullish factor will also factor into price structure," Seigle said.