Nigeria sees 'room to review' OPEC quota on oil output boost: official

Nigeria is confident it can negotiate an increase to its OPEC quota as it progresses with plans to hike crude output, the special advisor on energy to president Bola Tinubu told Platts.

In an interview on the sidelines of the International Energy Week conference in London, Olu Verheijen said Nigeria -- sub-Saharan Africa's largest oil producer -- pumped some 1.7 million b/d of crude and condensate in January. The West African country is aiming, she added, to boost output to 2 million b/d this year.

That would take it well past its OPEC quota (not including condensate) of 1.5 million b/d, which was trimmed from 1.78 million b/d in January 2024 following years of output declines.

According to official data from Nigeria's upstream regulator, NUPRC, the country produced 1.54 million b/d of crude in January, following a crackdown on crude theft and sabotage in the restive Niger Delta.

Rising output could set up a potential clash with OPEC, which has seen quota non-compliance by its members, including Iraq, Kazakhstan and the UAE, undercut efforts to shore up the oil market in recent months. Platts last assessed Dated Brent at $74.00/b on Feb. 27.

Nevertheless, Verheijen said Nigeria was confident of its ability to "make the case" for a higher quota, since its existing limit "is a function of our past performance".

"There are a number of factors that determine what your OPEC quota should be," the presidential advisor said. "It is at the current levels because of the historical issues that we've had. When it is time to review that, there will be all these improvements that you will need to take into account, when justifying why we should get a higher number."

Verheijen added: "I do believe that if we are able to demonstrate to our OPEC partners that we are reliable producers into the market and we can move closer to what our technical capacity is, there's room to review."

Nigeria's total oil production capacity is estimated at roughly 2.2 million b/d, but theft, underinvestment and field maturation have dented output.

The region's second-biggest producer, Angola, quit OPEC in 2024 following a months-long dispute over downward revisions to its output quota, which it argued would put vital upstream investment at risk. Like Angola's, the Nigerian economy is heavily dependent on oil revenues and foreign exchange from crude sales.

Key role

Despite concerns that African members have seen their influence decline within OPEC+, with eight key members including de facto leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia implementing 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts, Verheijen said Nigeria is content in the group.

"We are happy," she said. "We are going to play a key role and work very closely with OPEC, which will remain a major player in the oil market. We are excited about the opportunities that brings."

The West African country's OPEC governor, Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, holds the rotating chairmanship of OPEC's board of governors in 2025.

A near-term Nigerian production increase will be driven by local companies that recently acquired onshore and shallow water assets in the Niger Delta from IOCs including Shell and ExxonMobil and are looking to revive shut wells, Verheijen said.

In the medium and longer term, she added, Nigeria expects to see crude output rise further thanks to deepwater projects like Shell's Bonga, which have become the focus of IOCs in Nigeria following onshore divestments.