Mexican crude exports fall to record low, domestic refining holds: government data

Mexico's crude exports fell to a record low in January even as national production remained strong above 1 million barrels/day, reflecting a structural shift in how the country allocates its oil supply, government data showed.

Total crude exports dropped to 294,453 b/d in January, down from more than 1 million b/d in most of the past decade, according to government data released Feb. 26. The January figure marks the lowest monthly export level in Pemex crude export records, which only go back to 1990.

However, US import data from the US Energy Information Administration shows that the last time US imports of Mexican crude fell below 300,000 b/d was in June 1978.

Exports to the US and Europe continued in January, albeit at low rates, but flows to the Far East stopped completely, the data showed.

Between 2018 and 2022, Mexico routinely exported between 900,000 and 1.2 million b/d of crude. By late 2025, exports had fallen below 400,000 b/d, even as total production showed little sustained growth.

Pemex refinery run rates have remained elevated, averaging 1.06 million b/d in January and peaking above 1.2 million b/d in late 2025.

The divergence signals a fundamental rebalancing of Mexico's crude flows. Rather than exporting heavy Maya barrels to US Gulf Coast refiners, Pemex has increasingly redirected crude to domestic refineries, including the Olmeca plant at Dos Bocas.

Mexico's crude oil production averaged 1.37 million b/d in January 2026, essentially flat compared with 1.36 million b/d in January 2025, according to the government data. While output has stopped falling on a year-over-year basis, volumes remain below the roughly 1.55 million b/d produced in early 2024. Condensate production, meanwhile, rose to 282,600 b/d in January from 251,200 b/d a year earlier.

The shift represents the most significant change in Mexico's crude trade balance in decades and is part of a policy started by former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to prioritize fuel production to reduce the country's dependency on imports.

Mexico reduced fuel imports in January as domestic refinery output remained strong. Gasoline imports fell to 214,600 b/d in January, down from 349,100 b/d in January 2025. At the same time, domestic gasoline production rose to about 395,200 b/d from 306,800 b/d a year earlier. Diesel showed a similar pattern: imports declined to 42,300 b/d in January from 128,700 b/d in January 2025, while domestic production increased to roughly 276,900 b/d from 200,800 b/d in 2025, the data showed.