Venezuelan crude shipments to US on track to rise in February

Venezuelan crude shipments to the US are on track to rise 13% in February from January levels, with 7.08 million barrels scheduled for delivery month to date compared to 6.29 million barrels shipped in all of January, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea vessel-tracking data.

The increased flows come while Venezuela's overall crude exports have declined sharply from late 2025 peaks, falling to 656,000 b/d in January from 944,000 b/d in November, CAS data shows. February exports so far total 459,000 b/d, or 4.6 million barrels.

The US remains Venezuela's top buyer in February, receiving 2 million barrels (202,000 b/d) month to date. This is compared to 298,000 b/d received in January, 208,000 b/d in December 2025 and 219,000 b/d received in November 2025, the data showed.

India returns

India is emerging as a significant buyer of Venezuelan crude in February, purchasing 900,000 barrels month to date after a 10-month absence from the market. The South Asian nation last bought Venezuelan barrels in April 2025, when it imported 636,000 b/d, CAS data showed.

The resumption of Indian purchases comes as the country scales back Russian crude imports following trade negotiations with the US.

Earlier in the month, US President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to cease purchasing Russian oil and increase imports from the US and potentially Venezuela.

The two nations reportedly reached a trade agreement under which US reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods would drop to 18% from 25%, contingent upon India committing to purchase over $500 billion in American goods, including energy.

Amid these trade negotiations, the Indian Coast Guard on Feb. 6 said it busted an international oil-smuggling operation involving three vessels suspected of moving cheap oil from conflict regions through mid-sea transfers in international waters. Media reports suggest that the vessels were transporting Iranian crude.

The vessels "known to frequently change identity, are being escorted to Mumbai for further legal action," the Indian Coast Guard said Feb. 6 on X.

January imports of Russian crude to India fell between 1.2 million-1.3 million b/d, down from 1.6 million-1.7 million b/d during the same period last year, according to CAS data. Indian Oil Corporation has expressed openness to purchasing Venezuelan oil when available.

Spain also returned to the Venezuelan crude market in February, buying 1.01 million barrels so far, the first purchases since February 2025 when the country imported 75,000 b/d.

Aruba bought 300,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude in February month to date, its first purchases since April 2025 when it imported 12,000 b/d.

Venezuelan-origin crude exports from Malaysia totaled 73,000 b/d in January, down from 146,000 b/d in December and or 66,000 b/d in November, CAS data showed.

China received all Venezuelan-origin crude exports from Malaysia in the three months through January, the data showed. No Venezuelan crude shipments to China from Malaysia were recorded in February.

Venezuelan-origin crude exports from Brazil were last recorded in December at 1.1 million barrels, or 36,000 b/d.

Freight rates to climb

The US military seized another oil tanker it accused of violating its quarantine on shipping sanctioned Venezuelan crude on Feb. 9, announcing in a social media post that it had boarded a vessel, the Aquila II, in the Indian Ocean in an overnight raid.

The US has seized seven tankers with alleged ties to sanctioned Venezuelan crude shipments to date. The Aquila II is the furthest seizure from Venezuela's ports yet conducted.

As more tankers are seized from the sanctioned fleet, the availability of compliant vessels tightens. Vessels operating in the shadow fleet are older and typically don't flip back to compliant trade; rather, they are retired completely.

This has weighed on freight rates for Aframaxes, the preferred vessel for Venezuelan trade.

Rates for the 70,000 mt Caribbean-USGC run jumped significantly Feb. 10 to the highest level since January 2024. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed freight for the route at $33.21/metric ton on Feb. 10 and is expected to continue climbing according to market sources.

Platts assessed freight for the 270,000 mt Caribbean-West Coast India and Caribbean-Singapore routes at $11.75 million and $12 million, respectively, on Feb. 9.