Kazakhstan's crude export prospects rise with the end of CPC maintenance, Tengiz restart

Completion of repair work at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal and restart of crude production at the major Tengiz project could significantly impact Kazakhstan's crude production and export levels.

Exports via CPC, which ships Kazakh and Russian crude through the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, fell significantly in December and January due to drone strikes, delayed maintenance, and bad weather. CPC said Jan. 25 in a statement posted on Telegram that it has completed routine repairs at the third single-point mooring unit at its marine terminal and can now fully meet shippers' orders.

Bad weather delayed the routine repairs, which CPC had hoped to complete ahead of schedule after a drone attack damaged the second single-point mooring unit in late November.

"We emphasize that fulfilling oil shippers' orders in line with annual plans is guaranteed when at least two single-point mooring units are simultaneously in operation," CPC said.

Deliveries through the CPC, which is Kazakhstan's main export route, fell significantly in December and the first weeks of January.

Preliminary data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea indicates that exports through the route have averaged around 960,000 b/d in January, down from 1.021 million b/d in December and well below the 2025 peak of 1.743 million b/d in September, according to CAS data.

CPC said that a tanker was loaded at the third single-point mooring unit Jan. 25 after hydrotesting was carried out Jan. 21.

The routine maintenance work included replacing hoses.

"Replacing hoses on the single-point mooring unit is a routine operation to ensure the safe operation of all cargo berthing complexes at the marine terminal. Such work is consistently performed at each single point mooring at least once a year," CPC said.

Tengizchevroil production resumes

Separately, Tengizchevroil said Jan. 26 that it has restarted crude production in Kazakhstan after a power outage forced it to shut in production at the Tengiz and Korolev fields Jan. 19.

"TCO is working to progressively increase output as conditions allow. The company remains committed to maintaining safe and reliable operations," it said in a statement.

TCO did not provide details on current output volumes and how quickly production will return to pre-shut-in levels.

Independent energy analyst George Voloshin said that reaching pre-disruption levels at Tengiz could take up to 10 days.

"This delay is due to the technical requirement of gradually reheating pipelines and safely re-pressurizing wellheads to avoid equipment damage," he said.

"Since it takes about 10-14 days for oil from Tengiz to reach the Black Sea, the export impact should be most visible at the terminal this week," he added.

Production had already been affected by CPC disruptions.

Kazakhstan's Deputy Energy Minister Kaiyrkhan Tutkyshbayev said Jan. 7 that output at Tengiz fell to 507,000 b/d in December from 740,000 b/d in November.

Chevron holds a 50% stake in TCO with partners ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunayGaz (20%), and Lukoil (5%).

Price impact

Analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA said the restarts' impact is likely to be bearish for Mediterranean light sweet crude differentials.

"The restart increases CPC availability into the Med and should cap differentials for competing Atlantic Basin light sweets (Azeri Light/Saharan/WTI Midland). However, war-risk premiums and higher freight into the Black Sea/Med corridor keep delivered costs supported," the analysts said in a Jan. 26 note.

Ahead of the restarts, the Mediterranean sweet crude complex saw a staggered decline in values in the week ended Jan. 23 as the emergence of Libyan barrels onto the spot market and expectations for CPC Blend to return triggered a rapid supply build.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Azeri Light CIF Augusta down $1.855/b over the week to a $2.195/b premium to Dated Brent Jan. 23.

Platts assessed CPC Blend CIF Augusta at a $2.775/b discount to Dated Brent Jan. 23, a fresh seven-month low and down more than $1.425/b week over week.