Russian seaborne crude exports down with less Indian demand amid tightening EU sanctions

Russian seaborne crude exports have fallen sharply so far in January with less Indian demand amid tightening sanctions, following months of high overseas shipments, according to cargo-tracking data.

S&P Global Commodities at Sea figures show the country has exported 3.04 million b/d Jan. 1-15, compared with 3.85 million b/d for the whole of December.

Russia exported 3.5-4 million b/d of seaborne crude between September and December, according to CAS. Total exports reached 3.59 million b/d in 2025, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

But shipments to India -- the top buyer of Russian seaborne crude -- fell to 125,000 b/d in the first half of this month from 1.03 million b/d last month, according to CAS. The figures could be revised upwards later as many shipments currently do not have known destinations.

Lower exports to India came after the EU announced it would ban imports of fuel made from Russian oil by refiners in third countries from Jan. 21 in a bid to undermine Russia's war chest.

Reliance previously announced in November that it had halted Russian crude imports into its export-oriented refinery at the Jamnagar complex, India's largest with two facilities totaling some 1.36 million b/d.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Urals DAP West Coast India at a $8.15/b discount to Dated Brent Jan. 15, the steepest discount since July 3, 2023, when the grade was assessed at an $8.60/b discount.

Separately, the EU and UK will lower their price cap on Russian crude oil by over $3/b to $44.10/b starting Feb. 1, according to their announcements.

Platts assessed Urals on an FOB basis at Primorsk at $36.92/b Jan. 14.

Conflicts

In December, Russia's exports to China dropped 11% on the month to 1.02 million b/d and exports to India, whose refiners see Europe as an important market for its products, slumped 29% on the month to 1.03 million b/d.

Total exports in December were still 9% higher on the month and 8% above the average for the year. CAS data shows 445,000 b/d of the exports currently still do not have known destinations.

Russian refining capacity had been subject to Ukrainian drone attacks late last year, freeing up more crude for exports and reducing product availability earlier.

But recent Ukrainian attacks centered around upstream facilities and oil tankers. Exports of Russian refined products rose from 1.18 million b/d in November to 1.45 million b/d last month, before averaging 1.43 million b/d on Jan. 1-15, according to CAS. The figures did not include fuel oil and residues.

Exports of diesel/gasoil increased from 652,000 b/d in November to 866,000 b/d in December, the highest since March. Exports averaged 864,000 b/d in the first half of this month, CAS data shows.