Dated Brent crude differential surges to 15-month high on supply crunch

The Dated Brent physical differential rose to a 15-month high on Jan. 13 on a surge of buying interest amid a tight environment across the Atlantic Basin, with all basket grade crude differentials touching multi-month highs.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the Dated Brent physical differential at a $1.54/b premium to the North Sea Dated strip on Jan. 13, up 52 cents/b on the day to its highest value since Sept. 19, 2024.

The Dated Brent differential represents the most competitive differential out of Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll and West Texas Intermediate Midland grades on each day of the 10-day to one-month ahead assessment period.

North Sea crude differentials have been on an upward trajectory in recent sessions, as persistent disruptions to Kazakhstan's CPC Blend tighten supply balances across the Atlantic Basin complex.

Most recently, drones hit two crude tankers engaged in carrying Kazakh oil for export near the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, the Kazakh energy ministry said in a Jan. 13 statement.

"The situation on the CPC ground is not improving at all, and people are scrambling to cover alternatives so even Forties moving well," a Europe-based North Sea crude oil trader said. "There is barely any Midland around in February, so I expect the balance of this week to be extremely well bid."

Indeed, the Jan. 13 Platts Market on Close assessment process saw a surge of buying interest, with indications shown for all six Dated Brent basket grades for the first time since September 2025.

Fourteen bids were shown, of which three cargoes changed hands. One was a cargo of WTI Midland CIF Rotterdam for second-decade February arrival sold by Equinor to Gunvor at a $2.90/b premium over Dated Brent -- with a second trader describing the level as "very strong."

Four bids for WTI Midland cargoes arriving in the first and second decade of February were left outstanding at the close at premiums as high as $2.95/b over Dated Brent, as participants continued to note few availabilities on the prompt and fresh resupply volumes only landing in end-February.

With scarce availabilities, cargoes of WTI Midland trading further out seemed to be landing within a range, with a third trader describing levels as "all over the shop, but higher."

Market participants had valued end-February DAP Rotterdam WTI Midland arrivals around a $3/b premium over February Dated Brent during Jan. 13 afternoon trading, close to where some had reported offer levels across that time period.

As a result, WTI Midland CIF Rotterdam differentials continued to rise, logging a fresh 15-month on Jan. 13 at a premium of $2.915/b over the CIF North Sea Dated strip.

In local North Sea grades, traders said that cargoes from the February loading program would still be available, in contrast to a largely sold-out January program, but demand was strong for whatever volumes were left.

Notably, indications were seen for Troll for the first time since the Sept. 24 MOC session and for Brent Blend for the first time since the Nov. 24 session -- with the latter seeing BP selling a Brent Blend cargo loading Feb. 11-13 to Gunvor at a $1.60/b premium over Dated Brent.

Differentials for Oseberg and Troll saw the largest day-on-day increases of 73 cents/b and 68 cents/b, respectively, taking both grades to their highest levels since July 22, 2025, Platts data showed.

The Ekofisk differential also trended higher, rising 66.50 cents/b on the day to $2.39/b over the North Sea Dated strip, its highest level since July 8, 2025.

Forties and Brent Blend both extended increases on Jan. 13, and were assessed at their highest levels since September 2024, Platts data shows.

With the strength demonstrated on the prompt, structure across the North Sea Dated strip continued on an upward trajectory, surging further from a six-month high on Jan. 12 to reach its highest backwardation since January 2025.

Platts assessed the Brent CFD settling against week two -- currently Jan. 19-23 -- at a $1.96/b premium to its week 6 counterpart on Jan. 13, up 26 cents/b day over day to the highest level since Jan. 14, 2025.

Other contracts across the European crude derivatives complex also responded similarly, with the balance-month Dated to Frontline contract, currently January, climbing to its highest level since July.