FACTBOX: Venezuela's oil output growth hinges on security, investment

US and international oil executives have offered differing pledges on investing in Venezuela's oil industry following the US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

"We're going to be making the decision as to which oil companies are going to go in, that we're going to allow to go in, going to cut a deal with the companies," US President Donald Trump said Jan. 9 during a meeting with oil executives.

Trump pledged security guarantees to the companies without offering details or committing to stationing US troops in the country to secure the projects.

The following are key facts about the current state of the Venezuelan oil industry:

Prices

An increase in Venezuelan crude exports would be bearish for heavy crude prices.

• Heavy crude prices discounts have widened on news that the US would market up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude.
• Platts assessed Western Canadian Select crude at Nederland, Texas, at an $8/b discount to West Texas Intermediate crude on Jan. 12, tightening from a $9/b discount on Jan. 8, but widening from an average of $3.21/b in October, reflecting a well-supplied heavy crude market.
• Platts assessed Colombian Castilla crude at a $4.53/b discount to WTI on Jan. 12, widening from a $2.09/b average in October.
• Wider light-heavy crude spreads will benefit the US Gulf Coast and US Midwest refiners the most, given their large coking capacity, although major movement has yet to be reflected in margins.

Trade flows

Venezuela's oil exports slowed in December, but they could pick up if the US rolls back its sanctions.

• Trump said Jan. 9 that "30 million" barrels of Venezuelan oil were already in the process of being exported and marketed by the US.
• Trafigura CEO Richard Holtum told Trump on Jan. 9 the trader was already working with the administration "to bring that Venezuelan oil" to the US and that its first tanker should load in the next week.
• Vitol executive John Addison on Jan. 9 pledged his company was "there to ensure you are going to be able to move all this oil around the world at the best price possible, so that the influence you have over the Venezuelans will ensure that you get what you want."
• According to Platts cFlow vessel-tracking software, the Hellespont Protector, chartered by Vitol, is due to deliver naphtha diluent from the US to Venezuela on Jan. 28.
• The US will supply diluent as required to optimize production and transport of Venezuelan oil, the US Department of Energy said on Jan. 7.
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed on Jan. 7 that the US is "selectively rolling back sanctions to enable the transport and the sale of Venezuelan crude and oil products to the global markets."
• Sanctions enforcement remained in place, with US military forces apprehending a fifth crude oil tanker, the Olina, on Jan. 9.
• US military forces captured the Marinera and the Sophia on Jan. 7, the Centuries on Dec. 20 and the Skipper on Dec. 10.
• Venezuela exported 20.8 million barrels of crude in December, down from 27.5 million barrels in November, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

Infrastructure

Venezuela has approximately 364 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves; however, its oil infrastructure faces multiple challenges, with production capacity constrained by years of underinvestment.

• Trump has vowed to secure $100 billion in new investment for the country's dilapidated energy sector.
• Chevron is able to boost oil production in Venezuela by "about 50% in the next 18 to 24 months ... just leveraging what's on the ground," the company's vice chairman, Mark Nelson, said on Jan. 9.
• PDVSA currently produces around 300,000 b/d at maximum output; Chevron, through three JVs, produces around 244,000 b/d; North American Blue Energy Partners produces around 137,000 b/d through its JV.
• Other JVs with Repsol, Petro Romaina, China National Petroleum Corp. and Russian interests comprise the remainder of Venezuela's current production.
• Repsol CEO Josu Jon Imaz said Jan. 9 that the Spanish company was "ready to invest more in Venezuela and triple production there in the next two or three years."
• Repsol currently produces 45,000 b/d of oil in Venezuela, Imaz said.
• Repsol has a 40% stake in the Petroquiriquire Occidente joint venture with PDVSA.
• Jeffrey D. Hildebrand, founder and chairman of Hilcorp, said Jan. 9 his company was "fully committed and ready to go rebuilding the infrastructure in Venezuela."
• Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, said Jan. 9 that his company could have a technical team on the ground to assess the current state of the industry and assets "within the next couple of weeks," but also said the country was "uninvestible" in its current state.
• Trump subsequently said he was "inclined" to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela because he "didn't like Exxon's response," according to media reports.
• Valero CEO R. Lane Riggs told Trump on Jan. 9 the refiner was willing to expand its US refinery capacity to accommodate increased imports from Venezuela.
• Valero imports Venezuelan crude for its refineries in Corpus Christi and Port Arthur, Texas, and Norco, Louisiana, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
• The Venezuelan oil ministry has suspended the signing of a Production and Participation Contract with the North American Blue Energy Partners consortium to operate Petrocedeño, which extracts heavy oil in the Junín Block of the Orinoco Belt.
• Venezuela's largest oil fields include 14 supergiant fields, 11 of which still have more than 50% of their reserves.
• Venezuela's oil production has fallen from 3 million b/d in January 2008 to roughly 963,000 b/d in December due to a lack of investment in the country's infrastructure.
• Venezuelan production could grow if sanctions are removed, but it would require several billion dollars of investment to boost production to 1.5 million b/d in the next 12-24 months — an increase of roughly 500,000 b/d from recent levels, said Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of research for oil markets at S&P Global Energy CERA.
• Venezuela's refining system consists of four large refineries with a combined capacity of 1.3 million b/d, but those refineries are operating well below capacity.
• China Concord Resources Company Ltd. has halted repair and maintenance work on some units at PDVSA's Amuay and Cardón refineries in Venezuela, sources said Jan. 7.

Key players

The success of US goals for Venezuela may depend on the ability of acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez to collaborate with Washington without alienating other powerful officials in Venezuela.

• Venezuela's former vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, was sworn in as acting president on Jan. 5.
• Longtime opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was barred from running in Venezuela's 2024 election, is expected to meet with Trump on Jan. 15, according to press reports.
• In addition to Rodriguez, there are two key players in Venezuela: Minister of Interior Justice and Peace Diosdado Cabello, who oversees the country's police and prisons; and Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino López, said retired Ambassador James Story on Jan. 6.
• Delcy Rodriguez is also Venezuela's Petroleum Minister and OPEC representative.
• Héctor Andrés Obregón Pérez was appointed president of PDVSA in August 2024.
• Eduardo Lorenzo Pinto Salazar was appointed in March 2025 as the president of Venezuelan Petroleum Corporation, a subsidiary of PDVSA that manages business dealings with national and international companies.
• Harry Sargeant III, the CEO and founder of Global Oil Management, is advising the US on Venezuela, according to a Reuters report.
• According to Global Oil Management's website, Sargeant "supplied the United States Government with most of its jet fuel needs during the Iraq War, for which his company received a military commendation."
• Global Oil Management owns North American Blue Energy Partners.