COMMODITIES 2026: Africa, South America hold biggest crude projects set to come online in 2026

Eight of the world's largest oil field developments scheduled to start up in 2026 could add more than 450,000 b/d to global oil markets, with the largest contributions coming from Africa and South America, and smaller additions from the US and the Middle East, according to data from S&P Global Energy CERA.

Uganda dominates the 2026 project list with two developments in its Lake Albert basin that, together, will contribute 176,000 b/d. The Tilenga project, operated by France's TotalEnergies, represents the single largest addition at nearly 149,000 b/d in 2026, while the CNOOC-operated Kingfisher project will add 27,000 b/d. Both projects are expected to reach a combined plateau production of 230,000 b/d and produce an estimated 1.4 billion barrels over at least 20 years.

Although some projects still face infrastructure and execution risks, the new supply additions could exacerbate an expected oversupplied market this year, and at least some of the barrels will offset natural declines in mature fields, according to oil market analysts.

"Although several new upstream projects are expected to come online in 2026, the reliability and effective marketability of these incremental volumes remain subject to material, technical and execution risks," Saudi-based independent energy consultant and analyst Abdulaziz al-Muqbil said.

For example, the 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline, which will transport Uganda's crude to Tanzania for export, has reached 75% completion but faces ongoing delays from environmental opposition. The pipeline is expected to start operations by July 2026.

"These factors increase the probability that nominal capacity additions translate into intermittent or delayed flows rather than sustained, marketable barrels," Muqbil said.

The biggest new supply sources are found in non-OPEC+ countries, the CERA data shows, with Uganda and Guyana home to the largest fields scheduled to begin producing in 2026. Most of that supply is located offshore.

Africa and Middle East

Uganda claims the 2026 dual title for "biggest new field" and "most new barrels to market" from its two Lake Albert developments -- Tilenga and Kingfisher -- both expected online in October.

Tilenga contains six onshore fields with estimated recoverable reserves of 836 million barrels, while Kingfisher holds just over 214 million barrels in estimated recoverable oil reserves. The Kingfisher project is 74% done, according to Uganda's petroleum authority in November, and production should reach 27,000 b/d in 2026, plateauing to a rate of nearly 40,000 b/d from 2027 onwards.

"Tilenga and Kingfisher will produce an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil over a period of at least 20 years," TotalEnergies wrote on its website, adding that both projects will reach 230,000 b/d at plateau production.

Iraq – the only Middle Eastern country on this year's list – is home to the third-biggest project that will come online. Production at its East Baghdad shallow-water field is set to expand by 46,500 b/d in mid-2026, while total output from the light-to-medium-crude field should reach 120,000 b/d by 2027 following its Southern field expansion.

Latin American volumes

Over in South America, Guyana is the runner-up in the "biggest new field" category where production at the ultra-deepwater Uaru field is estimated to begin in July at nearly 136,000 b/d, with a ramp up to roughly 215,000 b/d by 2027.

Estimated recoverable reserves stand at 825 million barrels at the Uaru field, which sits in the Stabroek block, one of the world's largest offshore blocks with production of around 900,000 b/d.

Operated by ExxonMobil, Uaru is the fifth asset the oil major company is developing in Guyana's Stabroek block – helping Guyana potentially climb its way onto the list of top three South American oil producers, up from its current ranking of fifth.

Meanwhile, Brazil is set to launch the Buzios 8 project, which will eventually bring another 180,000 b/d of processing capacity to its ultra-deepwater subsalt developments through the P-79 floating production system, or FPSO.

Production from the Buzios 8 project will reach roughly 23,700 b/d upon its scheduled startup in 2026, ramping up to just over 152,000 b/d at peak production by 2028.

Brazil's state-run Petrobras is working to drive higher production at the Buzios field through to 2030, which it operates alongside China's CNOOC. Six new planned FPSOs will add about 1.4 million b/d worth of additional production capacity, according to Petrobras.

North American production

Alaska's Pikka is in the middle of the pack on the 2026 list of top oil fields, but it represents one of North America's most anticipated onshore assets scheduled for 2026.

Operated by Santos in partnership with Repsol and located in the North Slope basin, the Pikka project will include an oil processing facility and a single drill site which will pump 41,000 b/d by the end of this year. Peak production will reach near 76,000 b/d from the field's estimated recoverable oil reserves of 425 million barrels.

In the Gulf of Mexico, two deep water projects are scheduled for startup in the first half of 2026 bringing a combined 39,000 b/d online, approximately.

Buckskin's second phase of oil production, operated by UK-based Harbour Energy's recently acquired LLOG Exploration, is scheduled for startup in March. The field is expected to bring around 18,600 b/d into global oil supply this year from nearly 149 million barrels of recoverable reserves.

Additionally, privately-owned Beacon Offshore Energy's Monument project will bring just over 20,000 b/d into production following its July start. The deepwater offshore field, located in the Walker Ridge area of the Gulf, holds about 150 million barrels in estimated recoverable reserves.