Trump threatens to hit 52 Iranian sites in retaliation if Iran strikes back

Dubai — US President Donald Trump threatened to target 52 Iranian sites in retaliation if Tehran strikes back as tensions between the two countries escalate following Friday's killing of a top Iranian commander that sent oil prices climbing almost 5%.

Iran's General Qassim Soleimani was killed by the US military in Baghdad in response to his role in recent attacks on American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region, including his approval of the attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad last week.

"Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD," Trump tweeted on Sunday.

"The USA wants no more threats!"

Iran vowed on Friday to avenge US air strikes that killed Soleimani, raising the risk of more attacks by Iran against Middle Eastern and US interests in the region, which could impact oil production and supplies.

Crude futures surged after the US confirmed it had killed Soleimani. Brent settled 3.55% higher at $68.6/b while WTI rose 3.06% to $63.05/b on Friday.

WAR CRIME

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif condemned the "cowardly" assassination and described threats to bomb cultural sites as "a war crime."

"Whether kicking or screaming, end of US malign presence in West Asia has begun," he tweeted on Sunday.

Abdolrahim Mousavi, Iran's army commander in-chief, said he doubted the US would carry out its threats.

"In a probable confrontation in the future, I think it's unlikely that they would have the courage to do that," Mousavi was quoted by the students news agency ISNA as saying on Sunday in reply to Trump's tweet.

The bodies of Soleimani and others including Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy head of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), were flown to southwest Iran's province of Khuzestan for the first round of a grand funeral. Iran has organized a two-day, national funeral where mourning crowds in four cities will carry the coffins and hold ceremonies.

Millions thronged the streets of Ahvaz, once a major war front during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, chanting slogans against the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, ISNA said.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ

The UK is beefing up security around the Strait of Hormuz, the key chokepoint for oil and gas ships traversing the Persian Gulf. Iran had in the past threatened to close the waterway in case of war in the region.

"I have instructed preparations for HMS Montrose and HMS Defender to return to accompanying duties of Red Ensign Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said in a statement on Saturday. "The government will take all necessary steps to protect our ships and citizens at this time."

The US Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain, also polices the Strait of Hormuz, where daily oil flow averaged 21 million b/d or the equivalent of about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption in 2018, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The US Fifth Fleet is responsible for about 2.5 million square miles of area including the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and the Red Sea, according to its website.

The policed area spans 20 countries and includes three critical choke points at the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal and the Strait of Bab al Mandeb at the southern tip of Yemen.

A spokesman for the US Fifth Fleet declined to comment whether security will be or has been beefed up.

"We remain vigilant to assess threats and are monitoring developments in the region closely," Joshua Frey, the spokesman, told S&P Global Platts by email on Sunday. "In concert with our Bahraini hosts, we maintain robust capability to defend ourselves. We do not discuss specific force protection measures."

(Updates with Iran's response)

--Edited by Claudia Carpenter, claudia.carpenter@spglobal.com