India's DGTR recommends antidumping duties on imported met coke

India has recommended imposing antidumping duties of $60.87-$130.66/metric ton on metallurgical coke imports from several countries, including Indonesia and China, following an investigation, according to a Directorate General of Trade Remedies notification Nov. 14.

The trade regulator has recommended antidumping duties of $82.75/mt for imports from Indonesia -- India's biggest imported coke supplier in recent years -- $130.66/mt from China, $119.51/mt from Colombia, $85.12/mt from Russia, $73.55/mt from Australia and $60.87/mt from Japan.

The duties are recommended for low-ash met coke with an ash content below 18%, excluding ultra-low phosphorus met coke with a phosphorus content of up to 0.03%, with a size up to 30 mm and a 5% size tolerance, under the HS Codes 27040010, 27040020, 27040030 and 27040090.

India initiated an antidumping investigation on met coke imports from these countries in late March after the Indian Metallurgical Coke Manufacturers Association, which consists of domestic coke producers, filed an application citing injury to the domestic industry due to imports.

India had already imposed import quotas on met coke starting Jan. 1 to June 30, which were then extended through July 1-Dec. 31, following a safeguard investigation that showed that lower-cost met coke inflows were hurting the domestic industry.

Indian market participants have maintained that the threat to the domestic coke market was mainly due to Indonesian coke imports, which were priced lower by at least $100/mt or more compared to domestic coke.

India's imports of Indonesian coke stood at 884,916 mt over January-August, while for the full year 2024, they stood at 2.08 million mt, according to the latest data from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Analytics Suite.

Following the extension of the import quotas in July and the government's strict adherence to the policy that prevented any quota swapping, imports from Indonesia decreased. However, limited coke imports from other regions have been heard since July, as end-users have not found it viable to purchase coke from other origins.

Indian mills have been requesting that the government swap its import quotas from their allocated origins to Indonesia due to challenges with high prices, high voyage times and quality concerns.

"We will see Indian end-users coming back to the market now to buy from their allocated origins before the antidumping duties come [into] place," an international coke trader said.

"Indonesians will increase prices now, as they will have access to the Indian market once again," the trader said. "On top of that, even with the duties, Indonesia will still be more competitive compared to other imported coke, so if anyone wants to buy imported coke, they will choose Indonesia before others."

"This level [$82.75/mt] is acceptable to us," an Indonesia-based coke exporter said, adding that an antidumping duty would be better than the quota restrictions, as it would at least provide opportunities to sell with price adjustments.

The exporter noted limited restocking activities of Indonesian coke by participants in India before the antidumping duty recommendation.

"It looks quite heavy; this will disrupt coke flows yet again," an Indonesia-based coke maker said. "Trade flows will have to rebalance, and this will, of course, affect prices of coking coal as well."

Several market participants said that despite the move aiming to help domestic coke producers, imports would remain prevalent given the price spread.

"Imported [coke] might still come in, but the spread between domestic and imported prices will be minimal," an international steelmaker said, adding, "but [the] good part will be that flows will be there and will keep domestic prices in check."

"Given current Indonesian and Indian domestic coke price levels, Indonesian coke could once again enter the Indian market in significant volumes," a China-based coke trader source said.

Prices of Indian blast furnace coke 65/63 CSR for size 25-80 mm were heard in the range of Indian Rupee 30,000-31,000/mt ($338.26-$349.54/mt) ex-stock East India, excluding the 5% goods and services tax in the week ended Nov. 14.

The international coke trader, however, said many will choose domestic coke over imported coke, as domestic prices will look more attractive, and they can be at par with Indonesian coke as well if Indonesian prices increase.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed 65/63 CSR met coke prices on an FOB Indonesia basis unchanged day over day at $207/mt on Nov. 14.

The trade regulator will conduct an oral hearing for interested parties to present their views on the provisional antidumping duties. Following this, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade will take a call on the final antidumping duties to be imposed.