EIA US coal production, export, consumption forecasts decline sharply following coronavirus pandemic: STEO

The US Energy Information Administration forecast coal production of nearly 557 million st in 2020, down 22.2% from the estimated 2019 output of 690 million st, the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook reported Tuesday.

The 2020 output projection also dropped 6.4% from March's STEO, the largest month-on-month drop in 2020 so far as impacts from the coronavirus pandemic continue to be seen.

For 2021, the EIA projected output of about 589 million st, up 1.4% from March's forecast.

Coal exports for 2020 were projected to total 62.7 million st, down 32.1% from last year's exports. The forecast also dropped 19.7% month on month.

Exports in 2021 are projected to be 68.9 million st, down 16.8% from March's STEO.

Power sector consumption was forecast to total 432 million st in 2020, down 20.6% from 2019 consumption, and about 491 million st in 2021. Month on month, projections dropped 4.6% and 5.4% for 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Total US consumption was forecast to be about 480 million st in 2020, down 5% from the previous STEO and down 19.5% from the 2019 estimate of 596 million st. The EIA 2021 forecast was about 538 million st, up 4.5% from March's forecast.

Compared with the estimate US coal-powered generation share of 24% in 2019, the April EIA report projected coal generation share of 20% in 2020 and 23% in 2021.

Natural gas generation's share for 2020 was projected to be 39%, up from 37% in 2019. In 2021, gas generation was projected at 35%, dropping to an estimate of 35% or below for the first time since December 2018.

The EIA forecast gas production at 91.7 Bcf/d for 2020 in April, down from 2019 estimated production of about 99 Bcf/d. The 2021 projection was relatively flat month on month at 92.7 Bcf/d. Power sector consumption for 2020 was forecast to be 31.3 Bcf/d, up 0.9% from 2019 consumption, and 27.8 Bcf/d in 2021.