COMMODITIES 2026: MMA, acrylates to remain under pressure amid uneven demand, trade flows shifts

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2026 series, where our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2026.

The global methyl methacrylate and acrylates markets in 2026 are expected to face weak and uneven demand, shifting trade flows, and cautious purchasing behavior, despite signs of tightening availability in some regions.

European supply to tighten

The European MMA market is expected to tighten despite weak demand in Q1 2026, as the arbitrage window from Asia is anticipated to remain closed.

The arbitrage narrowed during mid- to late Q4 as the China-Northwest Europe spread contracted to a level that did not support imports, according to market participants. Platts MMA DDP Northwest Europe average price for November was calculated at Eur1,297.18/metric ton, while the CFR China $/mt average was calculated at $1,158.75/mt.

"There is already an impact: There is no Chinese MMA available," said a European distributor, adding that producers in Europe were "very aggressive" in securing 2026 contract business.

Traders have avoided building long positions due to limited arbitrage opportunities, which has reduced spot availability in early 2026, while restocking-driven activity could pressure prices.

In addition to the lack of imports, European supply was also impacted by Trinseo's 100,000 mt/year plant shutdown in Italy.

The main pressure on European prices has been mainly formed by competitively priced Middle Eastern volumes.

Europe may also see more supplies from the US as Roehm is expected to ramp up its 250,000 mt/year LiMA facility in Texas. Roehm's 250,000 mt/year ethylene-based plant reached 75% operating rates in November and is targeted to reach nameplate capacity by Q1 2026.

"This strategic addition is expected to drive US MMA exports at a robust CAGR of 3.46% over the next five years, shifting the region to a net export position, reinforcing its competitiveness," said Julia Legrande, principal analyst of MMA at S&P Global Energy CERA.

European acrylate CPs lower

The European acrylates markets, particularly butyl acrylate and 2-ethylhexyl acrylate, are likely to remain a "buyers' market" through the first half of 2026, according to several sellers and buyers.

Ongoing negotiations for 2026 contracts indicated that many European buyers had secured, or were being offered, competitively priced contract discounts.

Multiple buyers said this reinforced a preference to capture the majority of volumes through contractual arrangements, as contract levels were described as remaining close to the prevailing bearish spot market while adding security of supply.

Unlike MMA, imports from China were still expected to arrive in Europe during Q1 2026, but spot market activity was anticipated to slow.

US acrylates, MMA await recovery

The US MMA market will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy in 2026, as it impacts housing, and prepare for Roehm's new Texas plant to reach full rates amid an already well-supplied market.

Existing US home sales account for an estimated 85%-90% of MMA coatings demand, a producer said, with indicators still "near 30-year lows."

During Q4 2025, Platts assessed US MMA spot prices in a range of 87-91 cents/lb ($1,918-$2,006/mt) DDP USG despite concurrent turnarounds at Dow's Texas facility and Mitsubishi's Tennessee plant.

US MMA demand typically rises in the first quarter, ahead of the construction season, and then scales up in March. An MMA producer forecast "ever so slight" growth of just 1%-2% in 2026, unless home sales improve.

The US acrylates market is bracing for a challenging 2026, with hopes pinned on a recovery in demand, but domestic participants continue to offload inventory at low prices, extending the downward market trend.

While minor signs of improvement followed October's rate cuts, downstream demand from the housing and construction sectors remains largely stagnant.

Market participants expect ongoing softness, with one trader saying 2026 will be "more influenced" by demand than supply factors.

US tariffs are also complicating imports and altering trade flows, with a distributor noting allocations are shifting toward Latin America.

Overall demand remains well below prior-year levels, reinforcing the market's pessimistic outlook.

Asia MMA remains bearish

The MMA market in Asia is expected to remain bearish during the first half of 2026, following a prolonged price downtrend throughout 2025 driven by softening demand and inventory buildups in East Asia.

CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices declined steadily as regional demand remained sluggish, pressuring market values.

Muted demand from both India and China suggests similar conditions ahead.

Trump's tariffs sparked uncertainty, with most US-Asia MMA orders canceled in mid-2025 yet to be renewed. Weaker Indian paint demand and softer PMMA prices weighed on sentiment.

India BA reshapes trade flows

India is slowly becoming more self-sufficient in butyl acrylate, with a new plant from Indian Oil Corp. that began operations in September and targets 150,000 mt/year production in 2026. Together with Bharat Petroleum's plant that started up several years ago, total nameplate capacity in India now stands at 280,000 mt/year, against consumption of 300,000-330,000 mt/year, allowing domestic producers to cover 70%-75% of India's needs, an Indian producer said.

BA prices in 2025 fell to their lowest levels since the pandemic, as rising local supply significantly reshaped trade flows in the once import-driven market. Platts assessed CFR India butyl acrylate at $935/mt on Dec. 23, nearly $300/mt lower than when the year started.

"Imports will still come in," an India-based trader said. "However, the relationship has reversed; whereas import prices once drove domestic prices, now domestic prices are driving import prices."