Asia MTBE prices reach four year low on oversupply fears, weak crude oil futures

Asian MTBE FOB Singapore reached a four-year low at $608.05/mt Dec. 17, extending from weak crude oil futures, which similarly dropped to their lowest in seven months, Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, reported earlier.

MTBE FOB Singapore dipped from the Dec. 16 Asian close, dropping $6.73/mt day over day. Mean of Platts Singapore MTBE subsequently concluded at its lowest since Feb. 4, 2021, when it was assessed at $595/mt. In addition to softening crude oil futures, weak blending demand was heard for Asian MTBE on weaker Platts Singapore 92 RON gasoline swaps as well.

The front-month Singapore 92 RON gasoline swap fell to $70.40/b at the Dec. 17 Asian close, hitting an over-seven-month low, last lower at $69.80/b at the May 5 Asian close, Platts data showed.

Typically, toward the year end, Asian gasoline prices are expected to soften, tracking lower driving demand in the US market. An Asia-based market source noted that refineries often complete their turnarounds in December, which could potentially ease supply.

Another Asia-based market source found that supply tightness in the gasoline complex could persist into 2026, while demand fundamentals took a backseat.

Market activity also likely eased as market participants were on holiday breaks, according to an Asia-based industry source.

The MTBE market held several perspectives on blending demand in 2026.

On one hand, one regional oil producer was heard to be bullish on motor gasoline and blendstocks such as MTBE and paraxylene in 2026, "reformates for gasoline blending is better than going into the aromatics chain," she commented.

Another potential indicator was a projected widening spread between Asia and US MTBE prices in 2026, which reached its widest point at $215.41/mt in November, before dropping sharply in December due to concerns about oversupply.

Conversely, other market participants held a bearish outlook for the first quarter of 2026, with a trader from a global energy company commenting that MTBE prices would likely remain soft at least until the Lunar New Year. The "EU stockpile ends for now," he replied when asked about price support in Asia from deepsea cargo trades. Still, he shared that he expected demand to pick up again in one to two months.

With a lull in demand heard from the EU and Latin America, Chinese producers are turning to regional trades or even domestically to clear their MTBE inventory. The Chinese market is "a little better than Singapore, but also weak now," a Chinese producer remarked. Domestic offer levels in China were heard from a China-based trader around Yuan 4,000-4,950/mt Dec. 16, although "there's no real difference [to Singapore] once you include taxes," he said.