APPEC: Chinese PP exports to rise amid self-sufficiency; South Asia, Africa, SE Asia emerge as key destinations

Chinese polypropylene exports are set to rise as domestic market challenges intensify, with trade flows shifting toward high-growth regions of South Asia, Africa and Southeast Asia, said Feng Shaohua, director of polymers news and research management at S&P Global Energy.

Speaking at the Energy event APPEC 2025 in Singapore Sept. 10, Feng said China's PP exports show a consistent annual growth and are distributed across a diverse set of markets.

"By the end of this year, it is very likely that China will export 3 million mt of PP," he said. According to Platts data, China exported close to 2.5 million mt of PP in 2024.

China's capacity has caught up with its significant domestic demand and has surpassed 90% self-sufficiency. As the country's polypropylene market matures, South Asia, Africa and Southeast Asia are emerging as key growth regions and promising export destinations, Feng added.

PP's compounded annual demand growth rate from 2024-2029 will be the highest in India at about 7.8%, followed by Africa, 6.2%, and Southeast Asia, 5.6%, according to Energy analysts.

China holds the lowest PP prices globally, with Southeast Asia near parity. Europe, the US and Brazil face higher and more volatile pricing, opening export arbitrage windows for Chinese suppliers, said Feng.

Platts, part of Energy, assessed PP injection CFR FE Asia down $5/mt week over week at $840/mt Sept. 11 while PP injection was also down $5mt week over week at $870/mt Sept. 10. PP Homo FAS Houston was stable day over day at $948/mt Sept. 10.

In 2024, Vietnam imported 16% of China's yearly PP volumes at 381,000 mt, followed at 8% by Indonesia's 187,000 mt and Peru's 6% at 156,000 mt, Platts data showed.

Sustained growth in global PP demand

Global PP demand is anticipated to experience sustained growth despite downturns and environmental challenges, said Feng.

"PP demand will continue to grow and in the coming 25 years, there will be around 3 million mt of additional demand almost every year. This can justify at least five to six world-class polypropylene plants," he said.

Demographic trends and end-use industries remain key drivers of polyolefins demand over the next two decades, with emerging markets and durable applications as the primary contributors to the demand growth.

Consumer electronics are forecast to have the highest growth over the next two decades at 4.6% CAGR, followed by housewares at 3.7% and personal care at 3%.

The global PP market has been in a downcycle due to overinvestment, said Feng. Between 2022 and 2025, there has been a capacity overbuilt of 10.5 million mt/year.

"We are facing an oversupply issue because China invests a lot and they invest more than we need. Because of that, the operating rate has been depressed, but we expect it will slowly recover if we continue business as usual," said Feng.

Global operating rates are expected to see an uptrend beginning from 2026 at about 77% and eventually reach about 85% by 2034.