AMERICAS: The week ahead in petrochemicals

US OLEFINS: US spot ethylene price is expected to remain at a six-year high this week, amid continued strong downstream demand.

Along the US Gulf Coast, multiple crackers were heard to be restarting in the week ended Feb. 26, following the freeze in the prior week, and more are expected to restart this week, sources said.

Two propane dehydrogenation units that had shut due to the severe weather were heard to be restarting last week. Dow Chemical's 750,000 mt/year PDH unit in Freeport, Texas, and Flint Hills Resources 658,000 mt/year PDH unit in Houston were heard restarting Feb. 24, sources told S&P Global Platts. The restarts, coupled with downstream polypropylene freeze-related force majeures, have pushed spot polymer-grade propylene prices 41 cents lower from the all-time high of 125 cents/lb reached on Feb. 23, Platts data showed.

Meanwhile, domestic propylene contract prices were heard settling 28 cents higher last week. The 28-cent increase took the February PGP CP to 88.5 cents/lb, a more than nine-year high, according to Platts data.

US POLYMERS: US polyethylene spot export prices are also expected to rise this week, as the market continues to assess recovery timeline from the winter freeze that hit the USGC on Feb. 15, and as producers announce new pricing for March.

Many petrochemical producers in the region previously announced force majeure, or shutdowns due to the winter freeze. While some producers are working on restarting units, sources said there were very few offers and export prices are expected rise.

"Some producers have already told me to expect an export price jump," one trader said. Many producers have announced a 7-cent/lb rise for all PE grades, effective March 1, in addition to previously announced increases. One source said they were expecting domestic price increases of around 7-8 cents/lb.

Platts assessed domestic PE contracts stable on the week on Feb. 24, after raising them 5 cents on Feb. 3 for the January settlement, amid tight supply.

US METHANOL/MTBE: The US spot methanol market is expected to be stable to stronger on the week, with some regional production still down following the winter storm in the week ended Feb. 19. Supply continues to be seen as limited, adding price support to prompt volumes.

The US MTBE market is expected to be relatively rangebound on the week, as well, with continued supply tightness adding support to prompt volumes. The anticipated return of some production and lackluster export demand heard in the market could help to keep prices in a stable range.

LATIN AMERICA: The US is the most important supplier of polyethylene for the region, while it gets polypropylene mainly from the Middle East and Asia.

The Latin American region is currently relying on imports from Europe and Asia, at higher values and much higher freight rates, impacting CFR final prices.

In Brazil, local producers are expected to announce big hikes for March. Sources said a minimum Real 1,800/mt rise for all PE and PP grades is expected this week.

Polypropylene prices are also expected to rise on the week, following record high propylene prices. A continuous price uptrend was seen in product coming from Asia and the Middle East. Brazil and the West Coast of South America mostly import from Asia and the Middle East. In the US, meanwhile, prices have rocketed, surpassing the $2,600/mt level.

In the WCSA, spot import polyethylene prices are expected to continue moving higher in line with movements in the US -- if any volume is available from the US -- otherwise the region will seek material from Asia and Europe.

The Latin America PVC market also expects to see higher prices as the US has several producers offline. The market, meanwhile, is still relying on European and Asian material. Freight rates from China to the Latin American region has increased significantly, putting pressure on imports.

In Mercosur, market participants expect to see higher prices for March -- between $150-$250/mt for polyethylene. For polypropylene, prices are expected to range $850-$1,000/mt. This has not been confirmed though.

In Argentina, prices are also expected to rise. Participants said local producers were following international market trends and higher feedstock costs, and anticipated between $200-$300/mt in increases for March -- this is to be confirmed this week.