North American recycled product prices drag in Q4 2025: waste management companies

Major North American waste management companies faced weak recycled commodity pricing in the fourth quarter of 2025, with executives at Republic Services, GFL Environmental and Waste Connections pointing to macroeconomic uncertainties and competition from virgin materials as key headwinds.

Recycled commodity prices decline across sector

The three Materials Recovery Facilities, or MRFs, faced weaker recycled-commodity pricing in Q4 2025.

CFO of Arizona-headquartered Republic Services, Brian M. DelGhiaccio, said prices were around $112/metric ton in Q4, compared to $153/mt the year prior, with recycling processing and commodity sales flat on the year.

Similarly, GFL Environmental CFO Luke Pelosi said recycled-commodity pricing fell 33% on the year, with February prices about 20% lower than the 2025 average.

"Commodities continued to be a drag on margins with market pricing decelerating another 10% from Q3," Pelosi added.

Texas-based Waste Connections said recycled commodity prices fell for a second straight year, with prices facing incremental weakness in early Q4. However, CEO Eonal Mittelstaedt said plastics prices were moderating, which was relieving some cost pressures.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed post-consumer high density polyethylene natural bales at 60 cents/pound and assessed post-consumer polyethylene terephthalate curbside bales at 5 cents/lb, both ex-works Chicago, on Feb. 18.

Waste collection volumes diverge among MRFs

The companies saw varying waste collection volumes in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Republic Services' collection volumes declined in the period, which it attributed to ongoing softness in key industries.

"Volume declines were concentrated in construction and manufacturing end markets as well as a continued shedding of underperforming residential business," CEO Jon Vander Ark said in the company's Feb. 17, 2026, earnings call.

Severe winter weather played a role in softening volumes as well, with Republic Services executives estimating about a $25 million impact from weather in January.

However, Republic Services did see specific regional volume increases from its Polymer Centers, it said.

Waste Connections also noted sluggish underlying solid waste volumes in Q4 2025 during its Feb. 12 earnings call, with weather conditions affecting the business across the US in the period.

However, Florida-headquartered GFL saw higherwaste collection volumes in Q4 2025, which executives credited to the ramp-up of extended producer responsibility programs in Canada, they said in a Feb. 11 earnings call.

"We're obviously extremely happy with the post-collection network we have throughout the 10 provinces in Canada and 25 states in the US," GFL CEO Patrick Dovigi said.

Dovigi added that extended producer responsibility regulations, policies in which packaging producers are responsible for the end-of-life management of their materials, were outperforming.

Macroeconomic outlooks uncertain

The companies gave mixed outlooks for 2026, but were all monitoring economic indicators.

Republic Services executives said the company could open a fourth Polymer Center over time, but not in the very near term due to headwinds from imported virgin and recycled PET resin from Asia.

"Plastics are pretty challenged broadly," Vander Ark said.

The company's guidance for 2026 was "relatively flat as far as growth," noting uncertainty around trade policy and tariffs that are paralyzing investments.

"People are waiting for the rules to shake out in terms of making bigger capital decisions about where to locate production and their broader supply chains," Vander Ark said.

GFL Environmental remained bullish despite the "uncertain" macroeconomic environment and "softness in the industrial economy" in the next quarter, and looked to increased benefits from EPR and growth in revenue from the Southern US.

Waste Connections also had a bullish outlook and was intent on increasing its recycling capacity with new facilities. Executives said the company was monitoring indicators of an uptick in the underlying economy, focusing on consumer confidence, demand conditions and commerce flows -- factors that drive consumption and influence recycled values.