Brazilian PE market faces uncertainties amid possible delay of ADD decision on US imports

The Brazilian polyethylene import market's buying appetite remains reduced, atypically for January, amid uncertainties over the possibility of the delay of the final decision on antidumping duties on US and Canadian products, according to market participants.

Brazil implemented on Aug. 29 preliminary antidumping duties valid for six months. The US, the main PE supplier to Brazil, was hit by a $199.04/mt tax and saw its market share drop through the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Brazil's official import data.

The deadline for a decision regarding the definitive tax is scheduled for Feb. 2. A resolution from 2013 established that antidumping investigations in Brazil need to be concluded in 10 months, "except for exceptional circumstances, when the deadline can be postponed up until 18 months," according to the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce.

"The more uncertainty there is, the worse it gets," a Brazilian-based trader said. "With no exact date on when this will be over, the period of uncertainty gets bigger, and this ghost remains scaring the market."

The source added that sales from the US have increased in January against December with restocking season.

"But if there was no ADD, we would be selling much more," the source said.

The decision has impacted PE CFR prices in Brazil. US-origin offers remained lower than average levels by the end of 2025, also pressured by oversupply from US producers.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, last assessed the low-density film grade Jan. 14 $90/mt higher week over week, while the linear low-density butene grade increased $45/mt CFR Brazil, based on US-origin offers and tradable indications, which remained the most representative of the market.

"Outside of the US, there are fewer offers of linear and low-density grades," a second trader said. "Customers will suffer in order to buy material."

Market sources and official data indicated that Brazilian customers have been relying on various origins to compensate for the lack of competitiveness from US offers, such as Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

In the week ended Jan. 14, Southeast Asian offers for some PE grades, such as linear low-density butene, were heard at similar CFR levels as US offers, which have the ADD added to the final sum.

Argentina and Egypt benefit from an exemption of a 20% import duty applied by Brazil since October 2024 on resins and chemicals imports. The duty impacts the US, Saudi Arabia and any country lacking a bilateral trade agreement with Brazil.

"I have reduced offers from the US to Brazil," the second trader added. "But the transit time advantage still remains for those who need materials arriving faster."