Indonesia to maintain rice self-sufficiency in 2026; limited regional impact likely

Indonesia's aim to maintain its rice self-sufficiency policy in 2026, relying entirely on domestic production and stockpiles, is expected to have only limited impact on regional rice markets, market sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Dec. 23.

With Indonesia -- previously a major rice importer -- staying out of the market, exporting countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar are unlikely to see major changes in demand, while global rice prices will hinge on export competition, inventory levels and purchasing behavior from key buyers such as China and Bangladesh.

Indonesia did not import rice in 2025, adhering to a self-sufficiency policy, and plans to continue this in 2026.

"Everything can be fulfilled through self-sufficiency," said Tatang Yuliono, Deputy for Trade and Distribution Coordination at the Coordinating Ministry for Food Security, on Dec. 16, as quoted by local media reports.

He said the Ministry of Industry had proposed importing 380,952 mt of rice for industrial use next year, but the proposal was rejected, citing confidence in local production and stockpiles, which are projected to reach record highs. Imports for household consumption will not be permitted, he added.

Supporting this view, an official with Indonesia's state procurement agency Bulog said, "So far, our government is confident that we are able to supply for domestic requirements," underscoring confidence in local availability.

Milled rice production in Indonesia for the marketing year 2025/26 (January-December) is expected to be at 33.6 million mt, down 1.5% year over year, according to the projections from S&P Global Energy and the USDA.

Thailand market sees limited downside risk

Thailand's rice market is expected to see limited impact from Indonesia's absence.

"Indonesia's absence won't make much difference for Thai sellers because it's the same situation as 2025, they didn't buy any regular rice then either, apart from brokens," said a Bangkok-based rice seller.

"Indonesia still needs to import glutinous rice for industrial use, as it can't produce that domestically. Overall, if they stay out again in 2026, the impact will be limited and largely confined to the brokens segment," the seller added.

"It can't be worse than it already is," said another Bangkok-based rice seller, commenting on Indonesia staying out of the market in 2026.

Platts assessed Thai 5% WR at $403/mt FOB on Dec. 23, up $49/mt month over month.

Vietnam 5% WR was assessed at $363/mt FOB on Dec. 23, up $6/mt month over month, followed by Pakistan 5% WR at $355/mt FOB and India 5% WR at $349/mt FOB, up $20/mt and $14/mt month over month, respectively.

Myanmar 5% WR was last assessed at $349/mt FOB FCL on Dec. 19, up $30/mt month over month.

Vietnam, Myanmar rice market largely insulated

A Ho Chi Minh City-based industry source said Indonesia's decision not to import rice in 2026 is unlikely to have a significant impact on Vietnam's rice market, as Indonesian buying was already negligible in 2025. The source said that Indonesia's import policy primarily affects white rice with 5% and 15% broken.

Indonesia imported 500,000 mt of rice in the MY 2024/25, down 89% year over year, according to the data from S&P Global Energy, while according to USDA data Indonesia imported 700,000 mt of rice in the MY 2024/25, down 85% year over year.

Myanmar's rice market is also expected to experience limited disruption. A Yangon-based exporter said Indonesia's continued absence is unlikely to cause major changes. While demand from major regions has declined since 2025, Myanmar farmers have also scaled back rice production, the exporter said. Despite Indonesia's absence, the exporter noted that there is still demand for Myanmar rice from other regions, particularly China.

India faces pressure amid weak global demand

Indian rice prices are expected to remain under pressure amid weak demand from multiple regions.

Umesh Jain, Director at Sponge Enterprises, said, "Indian rice prices will remain under pressure. Buying from Africa is currently very weak, and the Philippines has also slowed imports, hitting Vietnamese prices as well. With demand absent across key markets, the rice market may decline further in the coming weeks."

A Singapore-based trader said high production and inventory levels have created a bearish rice market trend expected to continue into 2026, adding that any meaningful price recovery will depend on whether China and Bangladesh step up buying in the months ahead.