Ukrainian corn exports diversify as new top buyers emerge

As the corn season began in October, traders closely monitored Ukrainian corn exports, which continued to diversify across global markets. Recent years have seen a shift in trade routes, with new countries emerging as top importers each season.

For marketing year 2025-26, Turkey purchased several cargoes of Ukrainian corn for October-November, making it the top destination for this period, according to the latest port lineup data shared by traders. European countries, including Italy and Spain, also emerged as significant buyers of Ukrainian corn at the start of the season. Approximately 477,000 metric tons of corn were shipped from Ukraine to Turkey, while about 323,300 mt were destined for Italy during October-November 2025, the data indicates.

Moreover, market participants anticipated higher demand from Egypt during the early part of next year, as the flow of Brazilian corn to the Egyptian market was expected to slow down. "I believe we will go to Ukraine sooner or later," a buyer from a feed mill in Egypt said.

As the season advanced, traders expected greater demand from Europe and the Middle East, rather than Asia. "We expect more demand from the EU and MENA (Middle East and North Africa) for January, February, and March, according to a Ukrainian seller.

Another Ukrainian seller said, "50% of Ukraine's corn exports would be to the EU." A third seller added, "I guess Turkey, Italy, and Egypt will be the major destinations for Ukrainian corn." The trader continued, "It seems we are losing Spain to US corn now, but the second half of the season might be different depending on Ukraine's export pace."

Turkey was the major destination in the previous season. Turkey became the top importer of Ukrainian corn, accounting for over 30% of total exports, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Analytics Suite. Other significant destinations for MY 2024-25 included EU countries such as Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands.

However, in MY 2023-24, Spain was the leading destination for Ukrainian corn, receiving over 18% of total exports, as per data from Market Intelligence's Global Trade Analytics Suite.

The shift from Spain to Turkey as the primary destination was driven by two main factors. First, Turkey experienced high demand following a failed domestic crop and a reduction in Russian exports. Although Turkey had previously imported Ukrainian corn, demand surged in MY 2024-25 due to limited domestic supply. Additionally, reduced tariff import quotas for Ukrainian corn further boosted Turkish imports, supporting Ukrainian prices. "Since Russia did not issue an export quota for corn, attention naturally shifted toward Ukrainian corn as the main alternative," a Turkish market source said.

Second, Spain switched its sourcing to the US, which offered more competitive prices than the Black Sea region. As a price-sensitive market, Spain benefited from lower US corn prices, aided by US trade tariffs and reduced US exports to China. Meanwhile, Ukrainian corn was relatively expensive due to strong demand from Turkey, causing Spain to lose its position as the top importer. "Ukraine corn [is] totally out of the game for Spain," an importer from Spain said.

Earlier, in 2023-24, China was the second-largest importer, followed by Egypt, which accounted for more than 12% of Ukrainian corn exports thanks to the crop's competitiveness in the market.

In MY 2022-23, China was the primary destination for Ukrainian corn, accounting for more than 20% of Ukraine's total corn exports, according to S&P Global Energy data. Romania was the next largest destination, largely due to Ukrainian corn being shipped through Romanian ports to mitigate conflict-related risks. Spain ranked third among importers during this period.

Demand from China dropped in the following year, as the country curtailed imports to boost domestic production. Chinese customs data revealed that corn imports from Ukraine to China fell by more than 6% from 2023 to 2024.

As the year progressed, exports to China continued to decline due to further import restrictions and increased domestic corn production. Chinese customs data indicated that imports from Ukraine dropped by more than 80% from 2024 to 2025. A Ukrainian seller noted in 2024, "Ukrainian corn exports to China are still likely to decrease, potentially by several million metric tons."

Nevertheless, market participants continued to monitor demand for Ukrainian corn in the current season.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Ukraine corn FOB POC at $217.50/mt on Dec. 15 for loading Jan. 12-26.