COMMODITIES 2026: Ukraine’s corn exports to rise amid higher production

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2026 series, in which our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2026

Ukraine's corn exports are projected to increase during the marketing year 2025-26 (October to September) compared to last year as robust production and ample supply are expected to offset logistical disruptions and harvest delays, according to S&P Global Energy analysts.

Corn exports will reach 24.5 million mt in MY 2025-26, up from 20 million mt in MY 2024-25, Platts data showed.

As of Dec. 1, Ukraine had exported 3.7 million mt of corn for the MY 2025-26 period, 46.9% lower than the previous year, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.

Multiple traders based in Ukraine said the export pace is expected to gradually improve despite these challenges as they adapt to the logistical hurdles.

"We are trying to adapt," Ukraine Grain Association President Nikolay Gorbachov said, adding that "The logistics situation in Ukraine is unpredictable."

Nonetheless, the pace of exports is being slowed by harvest delays and logistical disruptions. Ongoing logistical challenges, combined with frequent Russian attacks on Ukraine amid geopolitical tensions, are expected to continue impacting exports in 2026.

The harvest has encountered delays due to rain during the period. Corn harvest was at 23.5 million mt as of Dec. 4, accounting for 78% of the expected area, with average yields improving to 6.8 mt/hectare, according to the latest operational data from the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture.

A report by S&P Global Energy analysts stated that the current harvest pace lags behind last year's, as 88% of the area was harvested by the end of November last year.

The report added that the harvest is expected to continue into December, which may further impact yield.

Traders in Ukraine said the harvest may extend even to January, adding that they expect production to be over 30 million mt this season.

Production to rise

Ukraine's corn production for the period is expected to reach 31.5 million metric tons, rising 18% year over year, the estimates showed.

Ukrainian traders reported an increase in corn acreage for MY 2025-26, enhancing production levels, while favorable weather during the growth stage has reduced damage and bolstered high yields compared to last year.

S&P Global Energy analysts revised Ukraine's corn production estimate down by 0.9 million mt for MY 2025-26, adjusting it from a previous forecast of 32.4 million mt, due to lower yields.

Recent disruptions in internal logistics have also hindered corn supply to ports, the traders said, but they anticipate these issues easing by early next year, which might lead to an increase in supply.

Steady demand

The demand for Ukrainian corn is projected to remain stable throughout the season, with various markets showing interest.

The EU is anticipated to be the primary destination for Ukrainian corn, with significant demand from countries such as Turkey and Egypt, according to Ukraine-based traders and brokers.

Importers from Turkey said the country was a major market for Ukrainian corn in MY 2024-25, which supported prices. They said that although a strong domestic crop in Turkey this year may limit imports, the demand for imported corn is expected to remain high next year, in line with increased consumption.

Italy, Spain and the Netherlands have been key destinations for Ukrainian corn so far in MY 2025-26, a trader said.

Black Sea traders anticipate that Italy will be a significant market for Ukrainian corn in 2026, especially given poor crop yields in Romania and Serbia, which have traditionally been major sources for Italy.

However, traders expect reduced exports to Asian markets in the next season unless demand strengthens.

"We expect more demand from the EU and MENA (Middle East and North Africa) for January, February and March", a seller from Ukraine said.

Bearish outlook

In Ukraine, prices for the new corn crop were lower than those for the old crop and also lower than last year's prices due to ample supply, according to regional traders.

However, the delayed harvest and logistical disruptions have led to an increase in corn prices as the MY 2025-26 begins, resulting in higher purchasing costs, the traders added.

Traders were also concerned about losing competitiveness in European markets if prices continued to rise. Recently, countries like Spain have resumed purchasing from Ukraine as it has become more competitive than US corn, traders said.

Currently, corn prices remain marginally higher than in October, the start of MY 2025-26, due to supply delays, Platts data showed.

Platts assessed Ukraine corn FOB POC at $217/mt on Dec. 10, down $1/mt day over day and up $2/mt year over year. Prices were slightly up from $213/mt on Oct. 6.