ExxonMobil to moderate low-carbon investments, conditional on policy support

ExxonMobil will moderate the pace of its low-carbon investments through 2030, even as the company stated that it will meet all of its 2030 corporate greenhouse gas emissions-intensity reduction targets by next year, according to its updated Corporate Plan released on Dec. 9.

The oil major raised its projections for earnings and cash flow growth out to 2030, targeting $25 billion in additional revenues and $35 billion in extra cash flow versus 2024—but said future deployment of capital into carbon capture, hydrogen, renewable fuels and other emerging low-carbon businesses will depend heavily on policy support and market formation.

The company is now planning around $20 billion in lower-emission investments between 2025 and 2030, with roughly 60% of that aimed at reducing emissions for third-party customers. That compares with earlier expectations for a more expansive investment path in its Low Carbon Solutions division, which includes SAF, renewable diesel, CCS and hydrogen.

Meeting emissions goals years early

ExxonMobil said it would achieve all of its 2030 greenhouse gas intensity goals by 2026, four years ahead of schedule. It has already met its corporate GHG and flaring-intensity targets and expects to reach planned methane-intensity cuts next year.

Despite hitting these milestones early, the company signaled that new capital allocation to lower-carbon technologies will be calibrated to "the availability of the opportunity set, public policy support, and returns."

Advantaged hydrocarbons dominate the 2030 outlook.

The company's growth outlook remains anchored in the oil and gas sector. Upstream production is expected to rise to 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, with the Permian, Guyana, and LNG accounting for 65% of total volumes.

Permian output is projected to double to 2.5 million boe/d by 2030, boosted by proprietary drilling technology and efficiencies from the Pioneer acquisition, with estimated synergies now double earlier expectations at $4 billion per year.

Low-carbon business grows

ExxonMobil highlighted progress in carbon capture, with roughly 9 Mtpa of CO₂ already under contract from third-party customers and its first end-to-end CCS system on the US Gulf Coast now operational. Additional CCS projects with partners, including Linde and Nucor, are scheduled to begin in 2026.

However, the company made it clear that it will pace investments in CCS, hydrogen, biofuels, and new materials to maintain returns, warning that further expansion beyond 2030 hinges on supportive rules, timely permitting, and "broader market formation."

Reprioritization signals tighter scrutiny on SAF

While ExxonMobil continues to pursue low-emissions fuels—such as SAF, renewable diesel, and ethanol intermediates—the 2025–2030 plan indicates that investment growth will be slower than previously expected, particularly in areas without apparent policy certainty or guaranteed offtake.

The company's broader portfolio of new low-carbon businesses, including Proxxima materials, carbon products, lithium, and CCS-enabled data centers, is estimated to carry $13 billion in earnings potential by 2040. However, much of that remains dependent on regulatory clarity.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Saudi Arabia's hydrogen produced via Steam Methane Reforming plus carbon capture and storage, including capital expenditures at $2.11/kg on Dec. 8, down 6.22% month over month.

It assessed Western Australia hydrogen produced via SMR plus CCS, including capex at $1.92/kg Dec. 5, down 16.88% from a month ago.