INTERVIEW: India eyes 21 countries as potential rice export markets amid record crop projections

India is targeting 21 countries as potential markets for rice exports, anticipating a record crop in marketing year 2025-26, Mukesh Jain, president of the Rice Exporters Association of Chhattisgarh, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, in an interview.

"India leads the global market of rice exports with a 45% share. Now, we are searching for markets in 21 countries for fortified rice kernels," Jain said.

The country's Kharif rice production for MY2025-26 (October-September) is projected at 124.5 million metric tons, an increase of 1.7 million mt year over year, according to initial estimates released Nov. 27 by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare.

"India produces 1 million mt of fortified rice kernels, of which 200,000-300,000 mt is surplus. This fortified rice is typically sold in free trade, and private exporters are now able to export fortified rice to Latin America," Jain said.

The efforts at exploring new markets are aimed at boosting exports and liquidating the surplus stock.

"The focus is primarily on Latin America and Southeast Asia. Bangladesh has been a consistent buyer, while Indonesia, Malaysia, and China are also significant opportunities. Our shipments in 2025 included fortified rice kernel sent from Chhattisgarh to Costa Rica and a second shipment to Papua New Guinea, which was done for the first time," Jain added.

"China usually experiences a rice shortfall of 2 million mt/year. While Myanmar has recently boosted exports to China, India's broken rice remains competitive in taste and quality, positioning it well for next year. Indonesia is also a key market for broken rice, and once imports resume after January, attention will turn to fulfilling demand," he stated.

India's rice exports are projected at 24 million mt for MY 2025-26, a 4.3% year-over-year increase, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.

Government support in boosting exports

"The respected Prime Minister has allocated a Rupees 25,000 crore ($2.78 billion) budget to boost exports to the MSME sector through banks. Notably, the India International Rice Summit is scheduled in Raipur, Chhattisgarh over Jan. 9-10, where delegations from 30 countries have been invited," Jain said.

The stakeholders have also requested the government to link Open Market Sale Scheme rates to international rice prices, supporting farmers and states with less rice production, Jain added.

GI Tag rice varieties promoted

Jain also said there has been renewed focus from the government on Geographical Indication-tagged rice varieties.

"Historically, rice has been synonymous with basmati, but the government is now focusing on branding and promoting various non-basmati rice varieties, such as Kalanamak from Uttar Pradesh and Jeeraphool from Chhattisgarh. These GI-tagged varieties are often sold at a premium of Rupees 180/kg."

GI-tagged rice varieties, which are also aromatic varieties, can be further promoted to Japan and the UK, according to Jain.

"A recent delegation from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), including exporters, visited the Japanese market, testing various Indian rice samples, resulting in the selection of seven varieties suitable for Japan. The global appreciation for Indian rice is evident, with demand in markets like the UK for Govindbhog variety from Bengal."

However, logistical challenges, particularly for landlocked states like Chhattisgarh, remain a hurdle. A request for logistics subsidies has been made to the government through APEDA, with indications that assistance may be forthcoming, Jain said.

Africa remains reliable import partner

"Africa will continue to be a reliable market for India. While countries like Nigeria aim for self-reliance, leading to potential decreases in imports from India over the next 5 to 10 years, this shift will be gradual," Jain stated.

However, Jain said that challenges persist and that stockpiles remain a concern despite balanced demand, with exporters exercising caution amid oversupply.

"Countries like Senegal, Indonesia, and the Philippines have stopped imports, and Bangladesh has halted inland imports via land borders. In response, APEDA has been requested to evaluate rice export levels over the past five years to prevent oversupply and to inform trade participants promptly. The registration of non-basmati rice exports through RCAC via APEDA aims to enhance data collection," Jain added.

Market activity to surge mid-January

The government is currently purchasing paddy at Minimum Support Price, which will conclude by Jan. 31, allowing for the determination of crop size as we are only hearing estimates now, Jain said.

Amid this procurement, Platts assessed India PB 5% at $354/mt FOB Dec. 4, up $13/mt month over month.

"Despite a 30%-35% price drop last year, the outlook is optimistic. Market activity is expected to increase post-mid-January as demand from buying countries resumes. Container prices to West Africa may soften to around $1,200/TEU," Jain added.