China eyes buying 12 mil mt US soybeans by end-2025, but doubts linger

China is expected to purchase 12 million metric tons of the US soybeans by the end of calendar year 2025 under a trade deal, despite certain question marks, several market participants told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, on Nov. 21.

If realized, the purchases by the world's top soybean importer are likely to support the US yellow bean prices in the coming weeks, they added.

"China may be able to fulfill its 12 million mt purchase target by the year-end, with the key factor being that Beijing's state-owned companies remain active in the market to purchase the American soybeans in the coming days," a China-based soybean buyer said.

Reflecting a similar sentiment, another China-based oilseed trader expressed a positive outlook on the US-China soybean deal.

"There is no doubt in China's ability to buy that volume [12 million mt of US soybeans], despite ample domestic supplies," the trader said, adding that the outcome of the deal lies in China's intention to fully execute the agreement.

The optimism in China's oilseed trading sector is further bolstered by the Asian nation's recent purchases of US oilseed.

China has bought 1.584 million mt of soybeans in three days in the week to Nov. 22, which is the largest single-week purchase volume since early November 2023, according to the latest US Department of Agriculture data.

The optimistic outlook on the US-China soybean deal is reflected in the prices of soybeans.

Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans for January deliveries at $447.35/mt on Nov. 20, up 8.5% month over month.

US-China soybean deal

Two of the world's biggest economies reached a deal in October when US President Donald Trump met China's President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

After the meeting, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an agreement under which China had committed to buy 12 million mt of US soybeans by the end of 2025.

Doubling down on this, Trump said in a social media post that China will purchase "tremendous" amounts of US soybeans. However, Beijing is yet to officially confirm the said commitment.

Typically, China imports 27 million-30 million mt of soybeans from the US in a marketing year (September-August), according to S&P Global Energy data. However, due to certain trade disagreements, both nations levied hefty retaliatory tariffs early this year, leading to a sharp fall in the US exports of the yellow oilseed to China, USDA data showed.

Uncertainty looms in China

Some China-based soybean traders and importers are still skeptical of Beijing's commitment to buy 12 million mt of American oilseed amid the wobbly ties with Washington and the hefty tariff levels.

The tariffs on US soybean imports are still high at 20%. As long as the import levy remains high on US soybeans, private buyers in China are likely to wait for the new harvest from its top supplier -- Brazil, market participants said.

"It [soybean deal] depends on whether the [Chinese] government has the determination [to buy 12 million mt of US soybeans]," said a China-based soybean analyst, adding the propensity for the US to alter its stance or renege on the agreement remains extremely high.

The US-China trade conflict has made some local soybean traders wary of any deal.

"I think the core issue isn't whether we can buy the full volume [12 million mt of US soybean]," a Xiamen-based soybean trader said. "The 12 million mt of US soybeans is roughly $5.4 billion. It's not that we [China] can't afford it, but the question is -- would the US suddenly turn hostile if we slightly delay the purchases? Would they withdraw from the trade talks?," he added.